Wednesday, August 12, 2009

Cincinnati Bengals Player Analysis

I know, the updates aren't exactly daily, but they're coming along. Studying for the CFA test has been kicking my butt. Anyways, the full slate of preseason games is about to start, which is a good thing for us true fantasy gamers, as we get to see which of our potential later round picks might end up with starting gigs, who looks better in a game situation, etc. Onto the Bungles!


Carson Palmer:
People seem to be scared of him to this day because of his injury problems. However, keep in mind that before last season, his TD totals were 33, 28 and 26, respectively. As with any other Qb who might face an injury scare for a fantasy owner, you'll want a decent QB2. However, Palmer seems to be damn good value at this point in time. An ADP calculator I'm looking at his him being taken at 8.03 in 12 team leagues, just behind the likes of Ryan, Schaub and Cutler. I actually have him pencilled in right around that range, but I doubt Ryan or Cutler have 4,000 yard, 30+ TD potential like Palmer does. If he drops behind the likes of Big Ben, Cassel, etc, snag him immediately and watch the dividends pay, even as trade bait if/once he regains form. He'll be a solid QB1 if healthy, and though he lost Housh, still has an attractive second option in Coles, and a couple other intriguing players I'll discuss here in a sec.


Chad Ochocinco:
Coming into last season, I never valued Chad as high as other people did. This is because of the consistency factor. He would produce a couple monster games a year (150 yard, 2 TD performances) that would likely spur you to victory, but in many other weeks, he would average around 4 receptions and 45-60 yards. As a WR1, those aren't numbers I want. However, this year, he's being drafted as a WR2, and you can be damn sure I'll take a WR2 that has the potential to win me a week with a monster game. He may be a little nutty in the head, but at least you'll have an entertainer on your squad if you do take him, and he's currently being drafted around the likes of Vincent Jackson, Braylon, Marshall, Roy Williams and Desean. Since I'm a PPR devotee, I'd likely take him over any of those names I just listed. Take him as your WR2 and have some good depth and if Palmer is healthy, you'll be happy you did at year end.


Laveranues Coles:
Why are all the Bungles seemingly undervalued this year. Coles is not a flashy receiver at all, but he should fill in adequately as the Bengals 2nd option very well. In his 4 years with the Jets, he averaged 6 TDs a season, and that was with some cruddy QB action going on. He's one of those guys will relatively little upside, but seems safer to me than some of the guys being taken near him (Lance Moore, Berrian, Avery, etc.) A fairly safe if unspectacular low-end WR2, or high-end WR3. Just remember my thoughts on low upside, proven guys: you'll typically want a couple high upside, high risk/reward guys on the bench to kind of even the flow of things.


Chase Coffman:
To be honest, I don't know much about how much time he'll get now that Reggie Kelly is out for the year. Obviously he'll see more snaps, but at this point in time, he's no more than a mid to low level TE2 in my eyes. Take a wait and see approach in the weeks leading up to the regular season if you have late drafts.


Cedric Benson:
This guy is very polarizing in fantasy circles. Some say he's a great pick because he's not in an RBBC, which is rare to find in the middle/late draft rounds. On the other hand, some say he's Cedric Benson (you know, the guy with Cedric Benson-like skills). Benson makes for a good RB3 or low-end RB2 provided you're solid at the WR position (ADP in the 7th round, where I think he's worth it). I say he's worth the shot simply because he does have the lion's share of the carries. For now. But I don't like him in dynasty leagues, and there's one reason for that. His name is...


Bernard Scott:
The AFC North has 2 rookie backs that make me salivate in dynasty leagues. This guy is one of them. The verdict is still out as to whether he'll be able to see time this season. He's currently at the #3 spot since the team released Kenny Watson (a good sign for Scott owners), and no one is delusional enough to think Brian Leonard will hold this guy off for seasons to come as the #2 back. Pick him in dynasty drafts, pick him in dynasty rookie drafts, pick him in leagues with BIG benches in redrafts (I'm okay with him on the WW in a standard 12, 14 teamer with smaller benches...for now). Just watch this guy closer than you'd watch your kids in a shark pool. Because all of a sudden, he might bite (NYUK NYUK NYUK).


The Bengals D: Oh, shutup. You're not in a 26 team league.


Potential sleepers:
I already mentioned Coffman and Scott. The other two of relevance are Andre Caldwell and Chris Henry, both WRs. Right now, Caldwell has the #3 job, but Henry is very likely to rotate in at various spots to spell all the WRs. Henry has MUCH more potential (Carson Palmer called him the next Randy Moss...haha, good luck kid), but as of now, Caldwell has the playing time. At the late stages in the draft I always take potential over a mediocre option on a team unless it's Brandon Stokley on the Colts, but whatever suits your team better, do it if you must.

(By the way, there's a WR on the Bengals with the last name 'Purify'. That's awesome.)

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