Peyton Manning:
A model of consistency if there ever was one. I may loathe the team and the guy, but I have to respect his ability to produce consistently for fantasy and real life purposes. I currently have him ranked as the QB3 overall, simply because you know he's pretty much a lock for at least 4,000 yards and 25 TDs. You'll take lines of 260 yds, 2 TDs and 1 turnover every week from your QB. I don't think Dungy leaving will have a huge impact on the team, because Caldwell has been with the Colts forever, and as of today, Mudd and Moore are back with the team. He's also not coming off surgery this year, so he won't stink the first few weeks like he did last year. Not much else to say. Draft the guy and you'll be set at QB...just don't reach for a QB. Ever.
Reggie Wayne:
Again, a fairly consistent performer. He had a 'down year' last year because Manning struggled initially because of surgery, and still managed 82/1150/6 or so, which isn't AWFUL for a WR1. He's probably not going to get you double digit TDs even with Marvin gone simply because of all the options the Colts have, but he's likely good for 90+ catches and 1250+ yards, making him a reliable WR1 option, with added PPR value. I have him ranked somewhere in the top 10 (I think even in the top 8) in my PPR tiers.
Anthony Gonzalez:
I think he'll be a solid WR, but people seem to be overhyping him more and more. I'm sorry, he's not a lock for high-end WR2 numbers, he's not a lock for over 1,000 yards and 8 scores. What he will have going for him is plenty of targets and a passing offense that will need to spread around 25-30 TDs somehow. He's definitely going to improve on last year's numbers (how can he not?) and might make for a decent dynasty investment as a career WR2. I've got him somewhere around Holmes, Moore, etc.
Joseph Addai:
I think he's one of the most polarizing picks in fantasy football at the RB spot right now. Some people say he's amazing value considering he's what...a year away from being picked in the first round of drafts? And some people say his numbers show an obvious decline and that he might end up seeing the minority of the carries by year end. For what it's worth, I think it'll be somewhere in between for most of the year. I don't think Addai will most some silly 500 yard season again, but I don't think there's any way he approaches 1k barring injury either. He might be a bit overvalued in drafts right now, but he should make a decent RB3/flex flier at worst.
Donald Brown:
See above for my thoughts on Addai, which will clue you in to what I think about Brown. He should be a solid runner since we've seen the Colts are willing to utilize rookie runners with regularity (see Addai's rookie year). Expect a nice fat RBBC, but scoring potential is there for both runners to have 4-7 TDs each along with 600-900 yards. A good dynasty league pick as well.
Dallas Clark:
One of the solid TEs in the league who has seen a nice uptick in numbers the last 2 years. That said, I think his numbers will likely be around where he was last year. I doubt he ever puts up double digit TDs again in his life, but he's safe, and should have 65+ catches and 725+ yards. A likely top 5 TE in all formats.
The Colts D is a decent pick, but 12 team leagues likely shouldn't have them rostered because of their continued run game issues, injuries, etc. Freeney and Mathis can always create pressure, but they're still a D you shouldn't be banking on for big points. Maybe the 15th best D or so in my book...won't kill you on most weeks, but likely won't get you any huge boom weeks either. A very 'meh' defense.
Potential sleepers:
A few come to mind, and they're all WRs. Pierre Garcon, Austin Collie and maybe Roy Hall are locked into a battle for the WR3 spot. They'll never see Stokley-esque numbers, but might make for decent bench fliers in some substantially deep leagues (I took Garcon with my last dynasty pick that wasn't a kicker...why not?) I expect Garcon to win that battle, but we shall see. There's also rumblings about Mike Hart seeing touches if Addai gets injured and Curtis Painter eventually taking the QB2 role, but you likely won't see those guys come into play anytime soon or in the next few years.
Friday, July 31, 2009
Tuesday, July 28, 2009
My fantasy football teams
Let me start off by saying I'm in about 12 fantasy football leagues this year, and that's not an exaggeration. However, there are only 4 that I REALLY care about, so I'll provide anecdotes and rosters, etc, here. I've drafted 3 of the teams already (one is the 20 team league a few posts down), and here are some of the other rosters:
12 team Dynasty league, PPR (bench players in parentheses):
QB: Philip Rivers, (Joe Flacco)
WR: Dwayne Bowe, Eddie Royal, Michael Crabtree, (Josh Morgan, Mike Walker, Chaz Schilens, Pierre Garcon)
RB: Maurice Jones-Drew, Kevin Smith, (James Davis, Michael Bush, Rashad Jennings)
W/R: Ahmad Bradshaw
TE: Greg Olsen
K: Ryan Longwell
DEF: New England
I'm fairly happy with my team, although I'm unsure on Crabtree as my 3rd WR at this point. All my bench WRs should be in a starting role in some capacity though, but I also don't know how Bradshaw will play out as my flex spot for now. I like my QB, my top 2 WR, and my RB corps. In 10 years of fantasy sports, this is also my first dynasty or keeper ever (weird, I know), so that's why I'm fairly concerned with my team.
12 team standard scoring money league:
QB: Jay Cutler, (Matt Hasselbeck)
WR: Calvin Johnson, Steve Smith, (Torry Holt, Devin Hester)
RB: Maurice Jones-Drew, Derrick Ward, (Chris Wells, Donald Brown, Michael Bush)
TE: Zach Miller
W/R: Dwayne Bowe
K: Robbie Gould
DEF: New England
First of all, I absolutely love my WR trio of Calvin, Smith and Bowe. Ward isn't my ideal RB2, but I was absolutely willing to take him given the WRs I got. Also interesting how invested I am in MJD, considering I know I have the #1 pick in my 16 team money league PPR, and I know I'm taking MJD first barring a preseason injury.
I'll post the 3rd roster when I draft it.
12 team Dynasty league, PPR (bench players in parentheses):
QB: Philip Rivers, (Joe Flacco)
WR: Dwayne Bowe, Eddie Royal, Michael Crabtree, (Josh Morgan, Mike Walker, Chaz Schilens, Pierre Garcon)
RB: Maurice Jones-Drew, Kevin Smith, (James Davis, Michael Bush, Rashad Jennings)
W/R: Ahmad Bradshaw
TE: Greg Olsen
K: Ryan Longwell
DEF: New England
I'm fairly happy with my team, although I'm unsure on Crabtree as my 3rd WR at this point. All my bench WRs should be in a starting role in some capacity though, but I also don't know how Bradshaw will play out as my flex spot for now. I like my QB, my top 2 WR, and my RB corps. In 10 years of fantasy sports, this is also my first dynasty or keeper ever (weird, I know), so that's why I'm fairly concerned with my team.
12 team standard scoring money league:
QB: Jay Cutler, (Matt Hasselbeck)
WR: Calvin Johnson, Steve Smith, (Torry Holt, Devin Hester)
RB: Maurice Jones-Drew, Derrick Ward, (Chris Wells, Donald Brown, Michael Bush)
TE: Zach Miller
W/R: Dwayne Bowe
K: Robbie Gould
DEF: New England
First of all, I absolutely love my WR trio of Calvin, Smith and Bowe. Ward isn't my ideal RB2, but I was absolutely willing to take him given the WRs I got. Also interesting how invested I am in MJD, considering I know I have the #1 pick in my 16 team money league PPR, and I know I'm taking MJD first barring a preseason injury.
I'll post the 3rd roster when I draft it.
Houston Texans Player Analysis
Onto the AFC South and a team with serious potential firepower.
Matt Schaub:
I have him ranked somewhere in the top 10 around #8 or so for QBs. He's injury prone, but he's a good QB when healthy and has serious weapons. Invest in him as a QB1, but realize that:
A) His ADP is slowly creeping up...(was at 7.06 in mid June, is around 7.01 now, and I suspect it'll be 6.something come August)
B) You must get a serviceable QB2 if he does go down for some time due to injury.
That said, the guy missed 4 or 5 games and still chucked over 3,000 yards last year. Not too shabby. Expect yardage in the upper 3000s and a TD count around 20.
Andre Johnson:
People are willing to take Fitzgerald in the top 5, but sometimes Andre slips out of the first round. Explain that logic to me. He's an absolute beast in PPR formats (most receptions last year, more than Welker), had more yardage than Fitz, and I still think he's a better redzone targets due to his size. He is absolutely my WR1 in PPR formats, and a top 3 WR in any format. And yes, I expect double digit touchdowns this season.
Kevin Walter:
One of the more underrated WRs in the league for real-life purposes. Most people likely don't know he had as many touchdowns as Andre last year. He won't get you too many receptions or ultra-consistency (see the fantasy playoff weeks last year for details), but I'll gladly take him over people like Crabtree and Laveranues, who have a better ADP than him. I do expect his TD count might go down a touch, but he's still a relatively solid WR2 and great WR3.
Steve Slaton:
I've seen this guy picked 18th overall. What the hell? Is there something wrong with 1600-1700 total yards and double digit touchdowns in a running back? Houston was supposed to get a goal-line back to spell Slaton, he's too small to handle the load, blah blah blah. He did exceptionally well last year, and in a PPR format, he's easily a first round pick. Until I see Houston draft the next Lenwhale White or TJ Duckett, he's still a solid RB1, and you should treat him that way.
Owen Daniels:
An underrated TE because of his TD count, especially in PPR formats. I said the exact same thing about Jason Witten in his 2006 season, and the next season he absolutely exploded for about 1100 yards and 7 TDs. Don't overlook this kid because he had 2 TDs. He's consistent, he'll get you yardage, he'll get you catches, and I'd bet money he'll get more than 2 TDs this year. A nice TE1 to have.
The Texans D. Hm. Okoye needs to step it up, Dunta Robinson needs to stay healthy. That said, if they perform at their potential, Super Mario, Barwin and Okoye have the potential to get to the QB with consistency, and they drafted Brian Cushing to help out with the LB corps. I'd call this D a sleeper D, but with the caveat that they could fully perform with thorough mediocrity throughout the season.
Potential sleepers:
Several actually. David Anderson SHOULD turn into a serviceable WR3, but this is deep dynasty material only for now. Arian Foster could become the dreaded goal-line back that Slaton owners fear. Ryan Moats could also play a situational role in the running game. But again, both are dynasty league only type guys. Chris Brown is made of glass, so I never concern myself with him. Andre Davis is also nice in dumb leagues that award too many points for return yardage. And last but certainly not least, Sexy Rexy is on the Texans. A likely 7,000 yard, 100 TD season incoming soon. Unleash that Dragon baby.
Matt Schaub:
I have him ranked somewhere in the top 10 around #8 or so for QBs. He's injury prone, but he's a good QB when healthy and has serious weapons. Invest in him as a QB1, but realize that:
A) His ADP is slowly creeping up...(was at 7.06 in mid June, is around 7.01 now, and I suspect it'll be 6.something come August)
B) You must get a serviceable QB2 if he does go down for some time due to injury.
That said, the guy missed 4 or 5 games and still chucked over 3,000 yards last year. Not too shabby. Expect yardage in the upper 3000s and a TD count around 20.
Andre Johnson:
People are willing to take Fitzgerald in the top 5, but sometimes Andre slips out of the first round. Explain that logic to me. He's an absolute beast in PPR formats (most receptions last year, more than Welker), had more yardage than Fitz, and I still think he's a better redzone targets due to his size. He is absolutely my WR1 in PPR formats, and a top 3 WR in any format. And yes, I expect double digit touchdowns this season.
Kevin Walter:
One of the more underrated WRs in the league for real-life purposes. Most people likely don't know he had as many touchdowns as Andre last year. He won't get you too many receptions or ultra-consistency (see the fantasy playoff weeks last year for details), but I'll gladly take him over people like Crabtree and Laveranues, who have a better ADP than him. I do expect his TD count might go down a touch, but he's still a relatively solid WR2 and great WR3.
Steve Slaton:
I've seen this guy picked 18th overall. What the hell? Is there something wrong with 1600-1700 total yards and double digit touchdowns in a running back? Houston was supposed to get a goal-line back to spell Slaton, he's too small to handle the load, blah blah blah. He did exceptionally well last year, and in a PPR format, he's easily a first round pick. Until I see Houston draft the next Lenwhale White or TJ Duckett, he's still a solid RB1, and you should treat him that way.
Owen Daniels:
An underrated TE because of his TD count, especially in PPR formats. I said the exact same thing about Jason Witten in his 2006 season, and the next season he absolutely exploded for about 1100 yards and 7 TDs. Don't overlook this kid because he had 2 TDs. He's consistent, he'll get you yardage, he'll get you catches, and I'd bet money he'll get more than 2 TDs this year. A nice TE1 to have.
The Texans D. Hm. Okoye needs to step it up, Dunta Robinson needs to stay healthy. That said, if they perform at their potential, Super Mario, Barwin and Okoye have the potential to get to the QB with consistency, and they drafted Brian Cushing to help out with the LB corps. I'd call this D a sleeper D, but with the caveat that they could fully perform with thorough mediocrity throughout the season.
Potential sleepers:
Several actually. David Anderson SHOULD turn into a serviceable WR3, but this is deep dynasty material only for now. Arian Foster could become the dreaded goal-line back that Slaton owners fear. Ryan Moats could also play a situational role in the running game. But again, both are dynasty league only type guys. Chris Brown is made of glass, so I never concern myself with him. Andre Davis is also nice in dumb leagues that award too many points for return yardage. And last but certainly not least, Sexy Rexy is on the Texans. A likely 7,000 yard, 100 TD season incoming soon. Unleash that Dragon baby.
Thursday, July 23, 2009
New York Jets Player Analysis
I hate the Jets. That said...
Kellen Clemens and Mark Sanchez:
To be honest, I'm not entirely sure what sort of value he holds at the time of writing this. About a month ago, I assumed he'd be starting and let Sanchez hold the clipboard and learn for half the season or so. Now, I'm not so sure. I don't think Clemens projects much value in any format of fantasy league, and Sanchez is probably a dynasty league only type pickup or a QB3 in a deep league. You can do much, much better at QB.
Jerricho Cotchery:
He's the prime target for the Jets with Coles outta sight, but that's not necessarily an amazing thing given the QB situation. I have Cotchery slotted in as a decent WR2, right around Gonzalez, Mason if he un-retires, Holmes, etc. He'll likely have the targets, but the numbers may not necessarily translate if a WR2 doesn't step it up in the Big Apple.
Chansi Stuckey and David Clowney:
Watch these two in camps and preseason. Right now I have Clowney slightly ahead of Stuckey, but I'd take whoever looks better in the aforementioned, given that they're neck and neck for WR2 duties at this time. I assume Clowney will take the split-end role and Stuckey will take the slot role, so Clowney may project better in standard leagues, while Stuckey may be worth the gamble in PPR leagues. Either way, these guys are late round fliers only.
Thomas Jones:
Boy, his situation is an enigma. I've heard reports he may be leaving. I've heard reports he's being benched. Whatever the case, you can be almost certain he won't come close to last year's numbers, so don't take him anywhere near RB1 range. Mid-level RB2 at best, and that may likely change in the coming weeks.
Leon Washington:
An explosive guy who won't be able to handle the load by himself should Jones be benched/traded. He's solid as an RB3/flex for PPR leagues or leagues with return bonuses...kind of like a Norwood/Harrison type fellow.
Shonn Greene:
NYJ's apparent RB of the future. Greene won't do you any favors in PPR, but might take over the goal-line duties this year, and could get the majority of the carries by 2010. A good dynasty investment and a good late round redraft pick who should be bumped down a peg in PPR leagues.
Dustin Keller:
The passing game's #2 target, he shouldn't fall off too much despite losing old man Favre. With Coles gone, someone has to get the extra targets, and he'll see his share. Very usable as a TE1, and if he's your TE2, I hope you're in an 8 team league. Good investment in dynasty leagues as well.
The New York Jets D should be very solid this season. Good additions like Scott, assumed development in Gholston (who needs to step it up with Pace suspended for 4 games), and a defensive-minded coach in Rex Ryan. I've got them as around the 7th best D.
Potential sleepers:
I mentioned the 2 WR candidates up there, and I suppose Brad Smith could be thrown in this category as well should one of the other 2 see an injury. Not much to write hom about in this department though.
Kellen Clemens and Mark Sanchez:
To be honest, I'm not entirely sure what sort of value he holds at the time of writing this. About a month ago, I assumed he'd be starting and let Sanchez hold the clipboard and learn for half the season or so. Now, I'm not so sure. I don't think Clemens projects much value in any format of fantasy league, and Sanchez is probably a dynasty league only type pickup or a QB3 in a deep league. You can do much, much better at QB.
Jerricho Cotchery:
He's the prime target for the Jets with Coles outta sight, but that's not necessarily an amazing thing given the QB situation. I have Cotchery slotted in as a decent WR2, right around Gonzalez, Mason if he un-retires, Holmes, etc. He'll likely have the targets, but the numbers may not necessarily translate if a WR2 doesn't step it up in the Big Apple.
Chansi Stuckey and David Clowney:
Watch these two in camps and preseason. Right now I have Clowney slightly ahead of Stuckey, but I'd take whoever looks better in the aforementioned, given that they're neck and neck for WR2 duties at this time. I assume Clowney will take the split-end role and Stuckey will take the slot role, so Clowney may project better in standard leagues, while Stuckey may be worth the gamble in PPR leagues. Either way, these guys are late round fliers only.
Thomas Jones:
Boy, his situation is an enigma. I've heard reports he may be leaving. I've heard reports he's being benched. Whatever the case, you can be almost certain he won't come close to last year's numbers, so don't take him anywhere near RB1 range. Mid-level RB2 at best, and that may likely change in the coming weeks.
Leon Washington:
An explosive guy who won't be able to handle the load by himself should Jones be benched/traded. He's solid as an RB3/flex for PPR leagues or leagues with return bonuses...kind of like a Norwood/Harrison type fellow.
Shonn Greene:
NYJ's apparent RB of the future. Greene won't do you any favors in PPR, but might take over the goal-line duties this year, and could get the majority of the carries by 2010. A good dynasty investment and a good late round redraft pick who should be bumped down a peg in PPR leagues.
Dustin Keller:
The passing game's #2 target, he shouldn't fall off too much despite losing old man Favre. With Coles gone, someone has to get the extra targets, and he'll see his share. Very usable as a TE1, and if he's your TE2, I hope you're in an 8 team league. Good investment in dynasty leagues as well.
The New York Jets D should be very solid this season. Good additions like Scott, assumed development in Gholston (who needs to step it up with Pace suspended for 4 games), and a defensive-minded coach in Rex Ryan. I've got them as around the 7th best D.
Potential sleepers:
I mentioned the 2 WR candidates up there, and I suppose Brad Smith could be thrown in this category as well should one of the other 2 see an injury. Not much to write hom about in this department though.
Saturday, July 18, 2009
New England Patriots Player Analysis
Ahh, and now we come to the stuff I really know.
Tom Brady:
I need to start off by saying I despise Bernard Pollard. That said, you and I both know this largely depends on his health and how quickly he can shake off the rust, because theoretically it will have been about 15-16 months or so since he last took a snap in a real NFL game. I'm pretty confident he'll hold up fine, because he's one of the toughest, most resilient guys there is, and he's a warrior, etc. I can also tell you he won't put up 50 TDs again, and probably not even 40. This is because we (The Pats) now have some crazy 4-headed hydra monster running attack, and with Mcdaniels and his aerial attack ideas gone, I expect BB (Bill Belichick for all you fools) to run the ball alot more. I do think Brady will be the #1 or #2 fantasy QB when all is said and done; just get yourself an insurance policy on the off chance his leg isn't healed. But enjoy the ride when he absolutely destroys all your favorite teams en route to 19-0 ;P Oh, and if you're reading this, I love you Tom. But only in the mancrush sense. Send me some money. Or Gisele.
Randy Moss:
I have Moss as the #3 WR regardless of format behind AJ and Fitz. That said, I wouldn't be surprised at all if he ends up being the #1 WR with something like 1300-1500 yds and 12-16 TDs. 23 TDs is a thing of the past, but even with Cassel (who doesn't deserve such a monster contract), he still put up over 1,000 yards and 11 TDs. Draft him as a top 5 wideout, and be thankful if he somehow slips to you at pick 18 or later.
Wes Welker:
Obviously upgrade him if you're in a PPR league since he's a lock for 100+ catches. He won't have 8 TDs like in '07, but he won't have 3 like last year. I'd guess 5 since he's not a redzone threat at all, so TD leagues can find much better options. A serviceable WR2 in standard leagues, and one of the players I most admire on the Pats.
Joey Galloway:
As of now (July 19th), the 3rd WR spot is still a bit of a mystery to us Pats fans. It's most likely to go to Galloway, but if he's nicked up or whatever, Greg Lewis might take some snaps from him. Regardless, he's bench material in a deep league at best, as he'll see less targets than Welker, Moss, and probably even Faulk. Draft only as a flier for those deep TD tosses.
Sammy Morris:
And now we get to the enigma that is the Pats running back corps. As a fan, I love what's going on. As a fantasy player, you're going to hate it. Of all the backs, Sammy Morris MIGHT be most likely to get some goal line looks each game, but as of right now, who knows. Draft as a late round flier.
Fred Taylor:
I think Fred Taylor is most likely to get carries between the 20s, so he won't have much value unless another back goes down (ie, Maroney). I think he's being drafted WAY too high in a bunch of leagues, and you're drafting him again as a flier. Not much insight I can provide to the situation besides the fact that it's muddled.
Laurence Maroney:
The man with the most 'potential' of the RB group, but also the guy likely to go down with some stupid injury. If he stays healthy, he could conceivably get the majority of the carries (which might only be 40% or so). For where he's being drafted (something like 14th round in 12 teamers), he's worth a gamble.
Kevin Faulk:
PPR leagues only. Not worth a roster spot in anything 12 team or shallower, especially standard leagues. But he will probably net you 40-50 catches on the year, so a decent bye week plugin for those 16-20 team PPRs.
Ben Watson:
You'll see all this stuff saying Ben Watson has potential, that now he can focus on receiving because we brought in Alex Smith and Chris Baker, blah blah blah. Bull. Ask any Pats fan and we'll tell you he's a near bust. He definitely has potential, but if you're drafting him as your starting TE, you're probably in trouble. TE2 please.
Stephen Gostkowski makes for a great kicker in all leagues. He has a very good chance to be the #1 scoring kicker again because Brady is back, and beyond that, he's extremely solid and has a good leg. But I'm sure some idiot will draft him in the 10th round or something. Don't let that idiot be you. Kickers are kickers.
The New England D has a ton of potential to be a top notch D again. The secondary has been improved a ton with Bodden, Springs, Butler, Chung and a healthy Wheatley. And the subtraction of Deltha O'Neal...that guy was indescribably awful. Adalius is healthy again, Mayo has a year under his belt, and Shawn Crable, a guy who alot of NE fans view with a ton of potential, is healthy after being shut down all year last year. I've got them around the 8th or 9th best D this season, but again, never reach for a D.
Potential sleepers:
Not alot of 'sleeper' potential here. Greg Lewis if Galloway goes down, one of the RBs if another RB goes down. BenJarvus Green-Ellis isn't worth a pick right now barring 2-3 RB injuries, which better not happen.
Tom Brady:
I need to start off by saying I despise Bernard Pollard. That said, you and I both know this largely depends on his health and how quickly he can shake off the rust, because theoretically it will have been about 15-16 months or so since he last took a snap in a real NFL game. I'm pretty confident he'll hold up fine, because he's one of the toughest, most resilient guys there is, and he's a warrior, etc. I can also tell you he won't put up 50 TDs again, and probably not even 40. This is because we (The Pats) now have some crazy 4-headed hydra monster running attack, and with Mcdaniels and his aerial attack ideas gone, I expect BB (Bill Belichick for all you fools) to run the ball alot more. I do think Brady will be the #1 or #2 fantasy QB when all is said and done; just get yourself an insurance policy on the off chance his leg isn't healed. But enjoy the ride when he absolutely destroys all your favorite teams en route to 19-0 ;P Oh, and if you're reading this, I love you Tom. But only in the mancrush sense. Send me some money. Or Gisele.
Randy Moss:
I have Moss as the #3 WR regardless of format behind AJ and Fitz. That said, I wouldn't be surprised at all if he ends up being the #1 WR with something like 1300-1500 yds and 12-16 TDs. 23 TDs is a thing of the past, but even with Cassel (who doesn't deserve such a monster contract), he still put up over 1,000 yards and 11 TDs. Draft him as a top 5 wideout, and be thankful if he somehow slips to you at pick 18 or later.
Wes Welker:
Obviously upgrade him if you're in a PPR league since he's a lock for 100+ catches. He won't have 8 TDs like in '07, but he won't have 3 like last year. I'd guess 5 since he's not a redzone threat at all, so TD leagues can find much better options. A serviceable WR2 in standard leagues, and one of the players I most admire on the Pats.
Joey Galloway:
As of now (July 19th), the 3rd WR spot is still a bit of a mystery to us Pats fans. It's most likely to go to Galloway, but if he's nicked up or whatever, Greg Lewis might take some snaps from him. Regardless, he's bench material in a deep league at best, as he'll see less targets than Welker, Moss, and probably even Faulk. Draft only as a flier for those deep TD tosses.
Sammy Morris:
And now we get to the enigma that is the Pats running back corps. As a fan, I love what's going on. As a fantasy player, you're going to hate it. Of all the backs, Sammy Morris MIGHT be most likely to get some goal line looks each game, but as of right now, who knows. Draft as a late round flier.
Fred Taylor:
I think Fred Taylor is most likely to get carries between the 20s, so he won't have much value unless another back goes down (ie, Maroney). I think he's being drafted WAY too high in a bunch of leagues, and you're drafting him again as a flier. Not much insight I can provide to the situation besides the fact that it's muddled.
Laurence Maroney:
The man with the most 'potential' of the RB group, but also the guy likely to go down with some stupid injury. If he stays healthy, he could conceivably get the majority of the carries (which might only be 40% or so). For where he's being drafted (something like 14th round in 12 teamers), he's worth a gamble.
Kevin Faulk:
PPR leagues only. Not worth a roster spot in anything 12 team or shallower, especially standard leagues. But he will probably net you 40-50 catches on the year, so a decent bye week plugin for those 16-20 team PPRs.
Ben Watson:
You'll see all this stuff saying Ben Watson has potential, that now he can focus on receiving because we brought in Alex Smith and Chris Baker, blah blah blah. Bull. Ask any Pats fan and we'll tell you he's a near bust. He definitely has potential, but if you're drafting him as your starting TE, you're probably in trouble. TE2 please.
Stephen Gostkowski makes for a great kicker in all leagues. He has a very good chance to be the #1 scoring kicker again because Brady is back, and beyond that, he's extremely solid and has a good leg. But I'm sure some idiot will draft him in the 10th round or something. Don't let that idiot be you. Kickers are kickers.
The New England D has a ton of potential to be a top notch D again. The secondary has been improved a ton with Bodden, Springs, Butler, Chung and a healthy Wheatley. And the subtraction of Deltha O'Neal...that guy was indescribably awful. Adalius is healthy again, Mayo has a year under his belt, and Shawn Crable, a guy who alot of NE fans view with a ton of potential, is healthy after being shut down all year last year. I've got them around the 8th or 9th best D this season, but again, never reach for a D.
Potential sleepers:
Not alot of 'sleeper' potential here. Greg Lewis if Galloway goes down, one of the RBs if another RB goes down. BenJarvus Green-Ellis isn't worth a pick right now barring 2-3 RB injuries, which better not happen.
20 Team League Draft Analysis
In late June (I know, way too early for a draft), my 20 team league's draft was conducted, and I wrote up some short thoughts on each team's rosters. Fairly standard scoring...non-PPR with 6 IDPs. So here you have it (and I'm posting my team first so people can compare it to the other teams more easily. And one of my depth players will need to go for an IDP player before the season begins).
Shock6822 (owner: Shock6822)
QB - Cassel
WR - Randy Moss, Lance Moore, Robiskie
RB - Kevin Smith, Moreno
TE - Shiancoe
W/T - Gage
W/R - Beanie Wells
BN - Celek, Favre, Glen Coffee, Bernard Scott, Garcon, James Davis, Devin Thomas, Rashad Jennings, Johnny Knox
K - Tynes
DEF - WAS
IDPs - Farrior, Durant, Tillman, Trent Cole, Shaun Rogers
Positives: I think the Smith/Moreno/Wells combo is extremely solid. I'm a fan of my bench depth, as I think there are several guys there who could pan out. I like both my TEs and the value I got for them.
Negatives: Not the biggest fan of my QB situation. Alot depends on KC's willingness to use the spread, and Favre's situation/health as a whole. Not a huge fan of Robiskie as my 3rd WR, although I know he should get looks. Although Moreno should have a big year, Denver's backfield is still crowded at this point. Wells is also a question mark relative to touches, GL carry %, etc.
Usual Suspects (owner: ?)
QB - Orton
WR - Marshall, Maclin, Iglesias
RB - Forte, Rice
TE - Witten
W/T - Pettigrew
W/R - Maroney
BN - Brady Quinn, Gaffney, Mark Sanchez, Johnnie Lee Higgins, Dantrell Savage, Josh Reed, James Hardy
K - Josh Brown
DEF - NYG
IDPs - Yeremiah Bell, Abraham, Winfield, Champ Bailey, Haynesworth, Ayers, Alphonso Smith
Positives: The starting duo of Forte and Rice could be nice, since I think Rice will pull away with the lion's share of the carries in Baltimore. He has the (imo) best fantasy TE and a solid D. Also has a solid QB corps, if unspectacular.
Negatives: I don't like his starting WR corps at all. At this point, Maclin and Iglesias are question marks to me, though I do think Iglesias will have a decent year if he starts. His IDPs aren't the best in our scoring system, though he can easily get some replacements. I think his bench position players really need work as well.
GaTechRavens (owner: GaTechRavens)
QB - Hasselbeck
WR - Bowe, Antonio Bryant, Royal
RB - Tomlinson, Julius Jones
TE - Carlson
W/T - Burleson
W/R - Michael Clayton
BN - Pat White, Edgerrin James, Desmond Clark
K - Akers, Dawson
DEF - NYJ, SEA
IDPs - A bunch of autodrafted randoms
Positives: I love his primary offensive starters. Solid WR corps, though I think Bryant regresses a bit.
Negatives: This could be a positive, but I consider LT the biggest enigma in fantasy sports right now. He could put up a monster year, or could easily fall out of first round status. His team depth is absolutely wretched, so an injury or two means he could be done. And of course, his IDPs are awful since he autodrafted them.
khodder (owner: khodder)
QB - Warner
WR - Cotchery, Rice, Meachem
RB - Adrian Peterson, Mcclain
TE - Gates
W/T - Donald Lee
W/R - Fred Taylor
BN - Andre Brown, Martellus Bennett, Josh Freeman, Chris Henry (WR), Leonard Weaver, Bobby Engram
K - Vinatieri, Graham
DEF - PIT
IDPs - James Harrison, Fletcher, Bethea, Sean Jones, Kampman, Robert Mathis, Stewart Bradley
Positives: Although khodder is shopping him around, Adrian Peterson is a stud, and if/when Favre comes in, his numbers should improve. Solid IDPs. I like his bench depth. He has one of the best TEs in fantasy.
Negatives: I feel like his starters are weak. I don't like Meachem and Taylor much in the spots they're in, and I've seen plenty of reports indicating Mcclain might play more FB and get less carries overall.
yellow_jeep (owner: ?)
QB - Mcnabb
WR - Hester, Berrian, Austin
RB - MJD, Reggie Bush
TE - Alex Smith
W/T - Malcolm Floyd
W/R - Leon Washington
BN - Trent Edwards, McMichael, Sweed, Clowney
K - Rackers
DEF - Indianapolis
IDPs - Patrick Willis, D'Qwell Jackson, Nick Collins, DRC, Freeney, Alex Brown, Meriweather, Kiwanuka, Merriman, Urlacher
Positives: Seems like a solid overall roster with no monster holes. WRs are unproven, but have explosive potential. Stud IDPs. I think MJD will be a top 2 back.
Negatives: Again, WRs are unproven. Too little offensive depth. What's the need for so many bench IDPs? Not a huge fan of the TE situation.
Kingballa12gt (owner: Kingballa12?)
QB - Garrard
WR - Fitzgerald, Boldin, Santana Moss
RB - Stewart, Mcgahee
TE - Zach Miller
W/T - Michael Jenkins
W/R - Camarillo
BN - Keenan Burton, BJGE, Rosenfels, Deshawn Wynn
K - Gostkowski, Prater
DEF - New England
IDPs - Random assortment of mostly no-names
Positives: Absolutely monster WR corps. Solid TE, and I like the flex spots. Has the best K in the league, and I think the NE D is in for a good year, especially with Brady back (even though he's not on the D, he impacts time on field and D stats).
Negatives: Hate the depth offensively. Where does BJGE even fit in to NE's monster RB committee? Not sure if he autodrafted, but horrible IDPs. Not sold on the RBs on the roster, starting and bench.
titansallday (owner: ?)
QB - Delhomme
WR - Ward, Holt, Breaston
RB - Portis, Pierre Thomas
TE - Tony Gonzalez
W/T - Ben Watson
W/R - Ricky Williams
BN - Earl Bennett, Hillis, Mewelde Moore, Thigpen, Reggie Brown
K - Longwell
DEF - Tennessee
IDPS - Blackmon, Vrabel, Antrel Rolle, Mcbath, Kevin Brown, Raji, Toeiana, Cody Spencer, Vince Redd
Positives: Managed a very solid overall starting roster. All of his WRs have the potential to put up 900+ yard season, and both his RBs can also put up 1k+ yards if healthy. Earl Bennett on the bench is nice as well. Has a solid D.
Negatives: Mediocre/below avg IDPs. Mediocre/below avg QB situation. Tony G might block more, meaning he might drop out of the top 5 in his position.
Oregon Ducks (owner: Oregon Ducks)
QB - Roethlisberger
WR - TO, Desean, Chambers
RB - Turner, Lynch
TE - Marcedes Lewis
W/T - HeywardBey
W/R - Buckhalter
BN - Eli Manning, Jamaal Charles, Maurice Morris, Javon Walker, Brandon Jones
K - Kaeding
DEF - SD
IDPS - Ruud, Vilma, Otogwe, Dawkins, Aaron Smith, Will Smith, Briggs, DJ Williams, Chris Long
Positives: Extremely solid QB duo. Decent starters, although no clue what he'll do the 3 weeks Lynch is out. Once Lynch comes back, however, great RB duo. Great IDPs.
Negatives: Where's the depth here? Don't like the bench beyond Eli. I don't like his flex spots at all. Again, no clue what he'll do for Lynch the first 3 weeks. Too many IDPs?
ziggy19 (owner: ziggy19)
QB - The Great One...err...Brady.
WR - Evans, Bess, Mike Walker
RB - Barber, Donald Brown
TE - Fasano
W/T - Schilens
W/R - Bradshaw
BN - Shonn Greene, Jason Campbell, Shawn Nelson, Steve Johnson
K - Gould
DEF - Dallas
IDPs - Kirk Morrison, Thomas Davis, Gibril Wilson, Kenny Phillips, Jason Jones, Mebane, Mike Mitchell, Stephen Cooper, Timmons, Orakpo
Positives: First of all, drafting right behind ziggy was a harrowing experience. He absolutely stole Bess, Walker and Schilens the rounds I was planning on picking them, so kudos on finding them at a decent spot. Solid IDPs. Solid QBs.
Negatives: Not much I dislike. He does need Walker and Schilens to break out, and although I think they will, if they don't he's in trouble. I think Fasano was a fluke last year, and I can't see him with 7 TDs again. As with a couple other teams, why so many IDPs? Coud have used those spots to shore up his offensive bench, which though filled with nice players, lacks numbers.
The Gnat (owner: The Gnat)
QB - Brees
WR - Jennings, Hixon, Curtis
RB - Mcfadden, Jamal Lewis
TE - Heath Miller
W/T - Randle El
W/R - Mendenhall
BN - Caddy Williams, Tarvaris, Shaun Mcdonald, Cobbs, Heiden, Jermichael Finley, Derek Anderson
K - Nedney
DEF - Minnesota
IDPs - Greenway, Henderson, Cedric Griffin, Gamble, Peppers, Kevin Williams, Hali
Positives: Brees is a monster. Decent flex spots. I think Hixon will perform well this year, and if Pit utilizes Miller more, he could be pretty good.
Negatives: Pretty heavily invested in Minnesota, though I guess since it's primarily defense, it's not a horrible thing. Questionable offensive depth.
bonesman (owner: bonesman)
QB - Matt Ryan
WR - Houshmandzadeh, Ginn, Washington
RB - Deangelo Williams, Thomas Jones
TE - Daniels
W/T - Scheffler
W/R - Fargas
BN - Bulger, Wade, Pittman, David Anderson, Andre Davis
K - Suisham
DEF - ATL, HOU
IDPs - Jared Allen, Tinoisamoa, Michael Griffin, D. Hall, Tuck, Suggs, Shaun Ellis, Ratliff
Positives: Solid starting RBs. Solid TEs in Daniels and Scheffler, both have top 5-6 potential. Solid IDPs.
Negatives: I don't think Nate Washington has a big year. I don't know how much time Fargas will see either. Bench is below average. I think Housh is much better in PPR as a WR1 than non-PPR.
Jamestown (owner: ?)
QB - Palmer
WR - Roddy White, Nicks, Henderson
RB - Chris Johnson, Larry Johnson
TE - Coffman
W/T - Northcutt
W/R - Hightower
BN - Stafford, Brandon Jackson, Demetrius Williams, Ringer, Harry Douglas
K - Bironas
DEF - GB, BUF
IDPs - Demeco Ryans, Ray Lewis, Finnegan, Revis, Darryl Tapp, Tommie Harris, Woodley, Rashen Mathis
Positives: Solid IDPs. If LJ stays healthy, solid RBs. Some decent depth players in Jackson, Ringer, Douglas, Stafford.
Negatives: As a whole, I think the starting lineup is below average. Nicks, Henderson, LJ, Coffman, Northcutt all don't sit well with me.
Dallas09 (owner: ?)
QB - Cutler
WR - Calvin, Crabtree, Baskett
RB - Ronnie Brown, Felix Jones
TE - Vernon Davis
W/T - Todd Heap
W/R - Sproles
BN - Matt Jones, Stuckey, Griese, Jacob Hester
K - Sea Bass
DEF - AZ, OAK
IDPs - Reed, Posluszny, Polamalu, McGee, Umenyiora, Kerney, Tramon Williams, Ogunleye, Bob Sanders
Positives: I see several spots of potential here. Crabtree, Felix, Sproles could all pay dividends. I think Ronnie will be solid this year as well, and Vernon Davis always has potential and the staff seems to want to use him more. Solid IDPs
Negatives: What is Baskett doing anywhere near a starting roster? Don't know where Heap will play out, and depth is so-so offensively. Some health questions on IDP side. Will Matt Jones find a team?
Ua (owner: ?)
QB - Rivers
WR - Welker, A. Gonzalez, Steve Smith (NYG)
RB - Gore, Graham
TE - Cooley
W/T - Josh Morgan
W/R - Choice
BN - James Jones, Malcolm Kelly, Betts, Britt, Leinart
K - Lindell
DEF - BAL
IDPs - Ware, Tatupu, Michael Lewis, Cromartie, Ngata, Vanden Bosch, Lawson, Roth, Josh Wilson
Positives: Wow, I really like this team. He can also rename it Pinchin' Lofa Tapupus, which is always a plus. But seriously, there are no huge holes. Great QB, solid starters, flex spots with good potential. Even a solid bench.
Negatives: Getting nitpicky here, but I think Graham will be soso, and Smith may be better in PPR formats. I don't really see much downside on this team.
Buckrock's Angels (owner: Buckrock 101)
QB - Peyton
WR - Holmes, Mason, Crayton
RB - Grant, FWParker
TE - Olsen
W/T - Galloway
W/R - Torain
BN - Michael Bush, Kevin Faulk, Stokley, VYoung, Greg Jones, Jason Hill
K - Carpenter
DEF - CHI
IDPs - Dansby, Roman Harper, Adrian Wilson, Woodson, Mario Williams, Gaines Adams, Seymor, Bernard 'Shock Hates You' Pollard
Positives: A solid all around team. Some decent bench slots, like Bush, Jones. Solid IDPs.
Negatives: Why is Torain his flex? He can just plug inBush, so no biggy. I'm fairly low on FWP for fantasy purposes, and I don't see too much upside here. He also has Bernard Pollard. I hate that guy.
Playoff Bound (owner: ?)
QB - Romo
WR - Braylon, Harvin, Bruce
RB - Jacobs, Benson
TE - Winslow
W/T - Bryant Johnson
W/R - Chester Taylor
BN - Plaxico, Jordy Nelson, Garcia, Crumpler, Jarrett, Manningham
K - Kasay, Reed
DEF - TB
IDPs - Demps, Lofton, Jammer, Bradie James, Dockett, Dewayne White
Positives: Relatively solid RB duo. Decent flier in Plaxico, though I doubt he plays. Decent WR depth.
Negatives: No real RB depth so to speak. Couple questions all around...how will Harvin perform fantasy wise? I expect him to be a boom or bust week in week out, which could be a headache. How will Bruce fare will Morgan/Hill/Crabtree looking like good young players with good futures? Still a mediocre bench.
Darrelle Revis (owner: ?)
QB - Flacco
WR - Wayne, Coles, Driver
RB - Slaton, Lenwhale
TE - Shockey
W/T - Muhammad
W/R - Ward
BN - Shaun Hill, Lamont Jordan, Jerramy Stevens
K - Crosby, Feely
DEF - CAR, CLE
IDPs - Random autodrafted
Positives: Solid WR corps. All are capable of 900+ yards. Nice having Ward as a flex back. I think Flacco has an improved year.
Negatives: Awful depth. Autodrafted IDPs. WRs are solid, but have no upside. Did I mention the awful depth?
Jonfnhall (owner: ?)
QB - Pennington
WR - Andre Johnson, Steve Smith, Vincent Jackson
RB - Fred Jackson, Norwood
TE - Keller
W/T - Billy Miller
W/R - Chad 85
BN - Jerome Harrison, Collins, Chris Brown, Culpepper
K - Elam, Hanson
DEF - JAX, CIN
IDPs - Beason, Mayo, Hope, Erik Coleman, Justin Smith, Okeafor, Crowder, Jamal Williams
Positives: Absolutely monster WR corps. Wow. Solid IDPs. Solid TEs, because I don't trust Shockey.
Negatives: Of course, the WR corps comes at the expense of the RBs, which make me cringe. Jackson could theoretically get involved in some sort of RBBC after Lynch comes back. Norwood and Harrison are home run hitters, but he has no real solid RBs so to speak. Unspectacular QBs (but at least he has 3)
Team yum yum (owner: Shock6822's friend)
QB - Rodgers
WR - Roy Williams, Walter, Mark Clayton
RB - Steven Jackson, Mccoy
TE - Dallas Clark
W/T - Boss
W/R - Duckett
BN - Curry, Rhodes, LJ Smith, Kitna, Sexy Rexy
K - Folk, Bryant
DEF - PHI
IDPs - Weddle, Barton, Corey Graham, Payne, Darren Howard, Bernard, Brian Williams, Brandon Carr
Positives: Solid front-end starters. He has Sexy Rexy on his team. Beast. Philly D could be a top 3 D this year.
Negatives: RB situation is in trouble, especially if Jackson misses some games. Mccoy needs a Westbrook injury for truly meaningful stats, otherwise he could be fairly random with a low workload. Bad bench depth. Why 3 TEs?
X98limitedX (owner: ?)
QB - Schaub
WR - Colston, Avery, Branch
RB - Westbrook, Addai
TE - Scaife
W/T - David Martin
W/R - Rashied Davis
BN - Sammy Morris, Mark Bradley, Jamarcus, Daniel Graham
K - Brown, Hartley
DEF - MIA
IDPs - Rivers, Pace, Hobbs, Fudge, Pat Williams, Wilfork, Applewhite, Lenon, Joey Porter
Positives: Decent IDPs. Fairly solid team all around if...
Negatives: the team stays healthy. I see some injury risks, maybe too much for one team. Schaub, Branch, Westbrook, Addai, and I could throw in Colston if I wanted. He needs his team to stay totally healthy, otherwise he's done. And his offensive depth isn't great. And as mentioned on another team...I don't see the point in 3 TEs.
Shock6822 (owner: Shock6822)
QB - Cassel
WR - Randy Moss, Lance Moore, Robiskie
RB - Kevin Smith, Moreno
TE - Shiancoe
W/T - Gage
W/R - Beanie Wells
BN - Celek, Favre, Glen Coffee, Bernard Scott, Garcon, James Davis, Devin Thomas, Rashad Jennings, Johnny Knox
K - Tynes
DEF - WAS
IDPs - Farrior, Durant, Tillman, Trent Cole, Shaun Rogers
Positives: I think the Smith/Moreno/Wells combo is extremely solid. I'm a fan of my bench depth, as I think there are several guys there who could pan out. I like both my TEs and the value I got for them.
Negatives: Not the biggest fan of my QB situation. Alot depends on KC's willingness to use the spread, and Favre's situation/health as a whole. Not a huge fan of Robiskie as my 3rd WR, although I know he should get looks. Although Moreno should have a big year, Denver's backfield is still crowded at this point. Wells is also a question mark relative to touches, GL carry %, etc.
Usual Suspects (owner: ?)
QB - Orton
WR - Marshall, Maclin, Iglesias
RB - Forte, Rice
TE - Witten
W/T - Pettigrew
W/R - Maroney
BN - Brady Quinn, Gaffney, Mark Sanchez, Johnnie Lee Higgins, Dantrell Savage, Josh Reed, James Hardy
K - Josh Brown
DEF - NYG
IDPs - Yeremiah Bell, Abraham, Winfield, Champ Bailey, Haynesworth, Ayers, Alphonso Smith
Positives: The starting duo of Forte and Rice could be nice, since I think Rice will pull away with the lion's share of the carries in Baltimore. He has the (imo) best fantasy TE and a solid D. Also has a solid QB corps, if unspectacular.
Negatives: I don't like his starting WR corps at all. At this point, Maclin and Iglesias are question marks to me, though I do think Iglesias will have a decent year if he starts. His IDPs aren't the best in our scoring system, though he can easily get some replacements. I think his bench position players really need work as well.
GaTechRavens (owner: GaTechRavens)
QB - Hasselbeck
WR - Bowe, Antonio Bryant, Royal
RB - Tomlinson, Julius Jones
TE - Carlson
W/T - Burleson
W/R - Michael Clayton
BN - Pat White, Edgerrin James, Desmond Clark
K - Akers, Dawson
DEF - NYJ, SEA
IDPs - A bunch of autodrafted randoms
Positives: I love his primary offensive starters. Solid WR corps, though I think Bryant regresses a bit.
Negatives: This could be a positive, but I consider LT the biggest enigma in fantasy sports right now. He could put up a monster year, or could easily fall out of first round status. His team depth is absolutely wretched, so an injury or two means he could be done. And of course, his IDPs are awful since he autodrafted them.
khodder (owner: khodder)
QB - Warner
WR - Cotchery, Rice, Meachem
RB - Adrian Peterson, Mcclain
TE - Gates
W/T - Donald Lee
W/R - Fred Taylor
BN - Andre Brown, Martellus Bennett, Josh Freeman, Chris Henry (WR), Leonard Weaver, Bobby Engram
K - Vinatieri, Graham
DEF - PIT
IDPs - James Harrison, Fletcher, Bethea, Sean Jones, Kampman, Robert Mathis, Stewart Bradley
Positives: Although khodder is shopping him around, Adrian Peterson is a stud, and if/when Favre comes in, his numbers should improve. Solid IDPs. I like his bench depth. He has one of the best TEs in fantasy.
Negatives: I feel like his starters are weak. I don't like Meachem and Taylor much in the spots they're in, and I've seen plenty of reports indicating Mcclain might play more FB and get less carries overall.
yellow_jeep (owner: ?)
QB - Mcnabb
WR - Hester, Berrian, Austin
RB - MJD, Reggie Bush
TE - Alex Smith
W/T - Malcolm Floyd
W/R - Leon Washington
BN - Trent Edwards, McMichael, Sweed, Clowney
K - Rackers
DEF - Indianapolis
IDPs - Patrick Willis, D'Qwell Jackson, Nick Collins, DRC, Freeney, Alex Brown, Meriweather, Kiwanuka, Merriman, Urlacher
Positives: Seems like a solid overall roster with no monster holes. WRs are unproven, but have explosive potential. Stud IDPs. I think MJD will be a top 2 back.
Negatives: Again, WRs are unproven. Too little offensive depth. What's the need for so many bench IDPs? Not a huge fan of the TE situation.
Kingballa12gt (owner: Kingballa12?)
QB - Garrard
WR - Fitzgerald, Boldin, Santana Moss
RB - Stewart, Mcgahee
TE - Zach Miller
W/T - Michael Jenkins
W/R - Camarillo
BN - Keenan Burton, BJGE, Rosenfels, Deshawn Wynn
K - Gostkowski, Prater
DEF - New England
IDPs - Random assortment of mostly no-names
Positives: Absolutely monster WR corps. Solid TE, and I like the flex spots. Has the best K in the league, and I think the NE D is in for a good year, especially with Brady back (even though he's not on the D, he impacts time on field and D stats).
Negatives: Hate the depth offensively. Where does BJGE even fit in to NE's monster RB committee? Not sure if he autodrafted, but horrible IDPs. Not sold on the RBs on the roster, starting and bench.
titansallday (owner: ?)
QB - Delhomme
WR - Ward, Holt, Breaston
RB - Portis, Pierre Thomas
TE - Tony Gonzalez
W/T - Ben Watson
W/R - Ricky Williams
BN - Earl Bennett, Hillis, Mewelde Moore, Thigpen, Reggie Brown
K - Longwell
DEF - Tennessee
IDPS - Blackmon, Vrabel, Antrel Rolle, Mcbath, Kevin Brown, Raji, Toeiana, Cody Spencer, Vince Redd
Positives: Managed a very solid overall starting roster. All of his WRs have the potential to put up 900+ yard season, and both his RBs can also put up 1k+ yards if healthy. Earl Bennett on the bench is nice as well. Has a solid D.
Negatives: Mediocre/below avg IDPs. Mediocre/below avg QB situation. Tony G might block more, meaning he might drop out of the top 5 in his position.
Oregon Ducks (owner: Oregon Ducks)
QB - Roethlisberger
WR - TO, Desean, Chambers
RB - Turner, Lynch
TE - Marcedes Lewis
W/T - HeywardBey
W/R - Buckhalter
BN - Eli Manning, Jamaal Charles, Maurice Morris, Javon Walker, Brandon Jones
K - Kaeding
DEF - SD
IDPS - Ruud, Vilma, Otogwe, Dawkins, Aaron Smith, Will Smith, Briggs, DJ Williams, Chris Long
Positives: Extremely solid QB duo. Decent starters, although no clue what he'll do the 3 weeks Lynch is out. Once Lynch comes back, however, great RB duo. Great IDPs.
Negatives: Where's the depth here? Don't like the bench beyond Eli. I don't like his flex spots at all. Again, no clue what he'll do for Lynch the first 3 weeks. Too many IDPs?
ziggy19 (owner: ziggy19)
QB - The Great One...err...Brady.
WR - Evans, Bess, Mike Walker
RB - Barber, Donald Brown
TE - Fasano
W/T - Schilens
W/R - Bradshaw
BN - Shonn Greene, Jason Campbell, Shawn Nelson, Steve Johnson
K - Gould
DEF - Dallas
IDPs - Kirk Morrison, Thomas Davis, Gibril Wilson, Kenny Phillips, Jason Jones, Mebane, Mike Mitchell, Stephen Cooper, Timmons, Orakpo
Positives: First of all, drafting right behind ziggy was a harrowing experience. He absolutely stole Bess, Walker and Schilens the rounds I was planning on picking them, so kudos on finding them at a decent spot. Solid IDPs. Solid QBs.
Negatives: Not much I dislike. He does need Walker and Schilens to break out, and although I think they will, if they don't he's in trouble. I think Fasano was a fluke last year, and I can't see him with 7 TDs again. As with a couple other teams, why so many IDPs? Coud have used those spots to shore up his offensive bench, which though filled with nice players, lacks numbers.
The Gnat (owner: The Gnat)
QB - Brees
WR - Jennings, Hixon, Curtis
RB - Mcfadden, Jamal Lewis
TE - Heath Miller
W/T - Randle El
W/R - Mendenhall
BN - Caddy Williams, Tarvaris, Shaun Mcdonald, Cobbs, Heiden, Jermichael Finley, Derek Anderson
K - Nedney
DEF - Minnesota
IDPs - Greenway, Henderson, Cedric Griffin, Gamble, Peppers, Kevin Williams, Hali
Positives: Brees is a monster. Decent flex spots. I think Hixon will perform well this year, and if Pit utilizes Miller more, he could be pretty good.
Negatives: Pretty heavily invested in Minnesota, though I guess since it's primarily defense, it's not a horrible thing. Questionable offensive depth.
bonesman (owner: bonesman)
QB - Matt Ryan
WR - Houshmandzadeh, Ginn, Washington
RB - Deangelo Williams, Thomas Jones
TE - Daniels
W/T - Scheffler
W/R - Fargas
BN - Bulger, Wade, Pittman, David Anderson, Andre Davis
K - Suisham
DEF - ATL, HOU
IDPs - Jared Allen, Tinoisamoa, Michael Griffin, D. Hall, Tuck, Suggs, Shaun Ellis, Ratliff
Positives: Solid starting RBs. Solid TEs in Daniels and Scheffler, both have top 5-6 potential. Solid IDPs.
Negatives: I don't think Nate Washington has a big year. I don't know how much time Fargas will see either. Bench is below average. I think Housh is much better in PPR as a WR1 than non-PPR.
Jamestown (owner: ?)
QB - Palmer
WR - Roddy White, Nicks, Henderson
RB - Chris Johnson, Larry Johnson
TE - Coffman
W/T - Northcutt
W/R - Hightower
BN - Stafford, Brandon Jackson, Demetrius Williams, Ringer, Harry Douglas
K - Bironas
DEF - GB, BUF
IDPs - Demeco Ryans, Ray Lewis, Finnegan, Revis, Darryl Tapp, Tommie Harris, Woodley, Rashen Mathis
Positives: Solid IDPs. If LJ stays healthy, solid RBs. Some decent depth players in Jackson, Ringer, Douglas, Stafford.
Negatives: As a whole, I think the starting lineup is below average. Nicks, Henderson, LJ, Coffman, Northcutt all don't sit well with me.
Dallas09 (owner: ?)
QB - Cutler
WR - Calvin, Crabtree, Baskett
RB - Ronnie Brown, Felix Jones
TE - Vernon Davis
W/T - Todd Heap
W/R - Sproles
BN - Matt Jones, Stuckey, Griese, Jacob Hester
K - Sea Bass
DEF - AZ, OAK
IDPs - Reed, Posluszny, Polamalu, McGee, Umenyiora, Kerney, Tramon Williams, Ogunleye, Bob Sanders
Positives: I see several spots of potential here. Crabtree, Felix, Sproles could all pay dividends. I think Ronnie will be solid this year as well, and Vernon Davis always has potential and the staff seems to want to use him more. Solid IDPs
Negatives: What is Baskett doing anywhere near a starting roster? Don't know where Heap will play out, and depth is so-so offensively. Some health questions on IDP side. Will Matt Jones find a team?
Ua (owner: ?)
QB - Rivers
WR - Welker, A. Gonzalez, Steve Smith (NYG)
RB - Gore, Graham
TE - Cooley
W/T - Josh Morgan
W/R - Choice
BN - James Jones, Malcolm Kelly, Betts, Britt, Leinart
K - Lindell
DEF - BAL
IDPs - Ware, Tatupu, Michael Lewis, Cromartie, Ngata, Vanden Bosch, Lawson, Roth, Josh Wilson
Positives: Wow, I really like this team. He can also rename it Pinchin' Lofa Tapupus, which is always a plus. But seriously, there are no huge holes. Great QB, solid starters, flex spots with good potential. Even a solid bench.
Negatives: Getting nitpicky here, but I think Graham will be soso, and Smith may be better in PPR formats. I don't really see much downside on this team.
Buckrock's Angels (owner: Buckrock 101)
QB - Peyton
WR - Holmes, Mason, Crayton
RB - Grant, FWParker
TE - Olsen
W/T - Galloway
W/R - Torain
BN - Michael Bush, Kevin Faulk, Stokley, VYoung, Greg Jones, Jason Hill
K - Carpenter
DEF - CHI
IDPs - Dansby, Roman Harper, Adrian Wilson, Woodson, Mario Williams, Gaines Adams, Seymor, Bernard 'Shock Hates You' Pollard
Positives: A solid all around team. Some decent bench slots, like Bush, Jones. Solid IDPs.
Negatives: Why is Torain his flex? He can just plug inBush, so no biggy. I'm fairly low on FWP for fantasy purposes, and I don't see too much upside here. He also has Bernard Pollard. I hate that guy.
Playoff Bound (owner: ?)
QB - Romo
WR - Braylon, Harvin, Bruce
RB - Jacobs, Benson
TE - Winslow
W/T - Bryant Johnson
W/R - Chester Taylor
BN - Plaxico, Jordy Nelson, Garcia, Crumpler, Jarrett, Manningham
K - Kasay, Reed
DEF - TB
IDPs - Demps, Lofton, Jammer, Bradie James, Dockett, Dewayne White
Positives: Relatively solid RB duo. Decent flier in Plaxico, though I doubt he plays. Decent WR depth.
Negatives: No real RB depth so to speak. Couple questions all around...how will Harvin perform fantasy wise? I expect him to be a boom or bust week in week out, which could be a headache. How will Bruce fare will Morgan/Hill/Crabtree looking like good young players with good futures? Still a mediocre bench.
Darrelle Revis (owner: ?)
QB - Flacco
WR - Wayne, Coles, Driver
RB - Slaton, Lenwhale
TE - Shockey
W/T - Muhammad
W/R - Ward
BN - Shaun Hill, Lamont Jordan, Jerramy Stevens
K - Crosby, Feely
DEF - CAR, CLE
IDPs - Random autodrafted
Positives: Solid WR corps. All are capable of 900+ yards. Nice having Ward as a flex back. I think Flacco has an improved year.
Negatives: Awful depth. Autodrafted IDPs. WRs are solid, but have no upside. Did I mention the awful depth?
Jonfnhall (owner: ?)
QB - Pennington
WR - Andre Johnson, Steve Smith, Vincent Jackson
RB - Fred Jackson, Norwood
TE - Keller
W/T - Billy Miller
W/R - Chad 85
BN - Jerome Harrison, Collins, Chris Brown, Culpepper
K - Elam, Hanson
DEF - JAX, CIN
IDPs - Beason, Mayo, Hope, Erik Coleman, Justin Smith, Okeafor, Crowder, Jamal Williams
Positives: Absolutely monster WR corps. Wow. Solid IDPs. Solid TEs, because I don't trust Shockey.
Negatives: Of course, the WR corps comes at the expense of the RBs, which make me cringe. Jackson could theoretically get involved in some sort of RBBC after Lynch comes back. Norwood and Harrison are home run hitters, but he has no real solid RBs so to speak. Unspectacular QBs (but at least he has 3)
Team yum yum (owner: Shock6822's friend)
QB - Rodgers
WR - Roy Williams, Walter, Mark Clayton
RB - Steven Jackson, Mccoy
TE - Dallas Clark
W/T - Boss
W/R - Duckett
BN - Curry, Rhodes, LJ Smith, Kitna, Sexy Rexy
K - Folk, Bryant
DEF - PHI
IDPs - Weddle, Barton, Corey Graham, Payne, Darren Howard, Bernard, Brian Williams, Brandon Carr
Positives: Solid front-end starters. He has Sexy Rexy on his team. Beast. Philly D could be a top 3 D this year.
Negatives: RB situation is in trouble, especially if Jackson misses some games. Mccoy needs a Westbrook injury for truly meaningful stats, otherwise he could be fairly random with a low workload. Bad bench depth. Why 3 TEs?
X98limitedX (owner: ?)
QB - Schaub
WR - Colston, Avery, Branch
RB - Westbrook, Addai
TE - Scaife
W/T - David Martin
W/R - Rashied Davis
BN - Sammy Morris, Mark Bradley, Jamarcus, Daniel Graham
K - Brown, Hartley
DEF - MIA
IDPs - Rivers, Pace, Hobbs, Fudge, Pat Williams, Wilfork, Applewhite, Lenon, Joey Porter
Positives: Decent IDPs. Fairly solid team all around if...
Negatives: the team stays healthy. I see some injury risks, maybe too much for one team. Schaub, Branch, Westbrook, Addai, and I could throw in Colston if I wanted. He needs his team to stay totally healthy, otherwise he's done. And his offensive depth isn't great. And as mentioned on another team...I don't see the point in 3 TEs.
Friday, July 17, 2009
Miami Dolphins Player Analysis
More like Lolphins?
Chad Pennington:
He was like the David Garrard of '07. Unspectacular, yet surprisingly solid. That said, his upside is pretty limited, and who knows what to make of the Henne chatter. Pat White may also see snaps at QB if he progresses some more in training camp and preseason. The Dolphins also don't see the West divisions again. Pennington makes for a decent bye week filler or midlevel QB2, but I wouldn't expect another 3600 yd, 19 TD, 7 INT performance.
Ronnie Brown:
Ah, what a conundrum. On one hand, he put up a ton of points in 1 big game last year (trust me, I remember. Week 3.). On the other hand, he's apparently looking amazing in training camp (for what it's worth), and is 2+ years removed from his big injury. I don't think Ricky is as big a threat for carries as he was last year, so Ronnie should be a solid RB2. Just don't expect loads of consistency week-in week-out. And do keep in mind he's still considered 'injury prone' for now.
Ricky Williams:
Ricky is handcuff/bench material in all leagues as Ronnie's backup, as he isn't getting any younger. I doubt he scores more than 5 TDs. However, if Ronnie should go down for some reason, Ricky should be a solid RB2/3.
Anthony Fasano:
I'm sorry, but last year was a fluke for this guy. Without the glut of TDs he had extremely mediocre stats all around, and he just isn't that skilled as a player. 7 TDs in 11 redzone targets is extremely lucky, and he wasn't thar targeted at all period. I have him ranked as the 17th best TE, so you can likely do better unless you're a nut and one of your leagues is a 20 teamer (i.e., me).
Ted Ginn Jr:
Imagine what the poor guy could do without Ol' Noodle Arm throwing to him (maybe not much regardless, but I digress.) Ginn will never be a solid PPR receiver, but what he can do is boom or bust a week for you, as evidenced by his 175 yard week and -1 yard week. He'll also never be a solid TD factor in the redzone or anywhere else because of his size. WR3 at best.
Greg Camarillo:
Before he went down in Week 13 last year, Camarillo was actually putting up fairly solid numbers. He'll always be competing with Ginn, Bess and the backs for looks, and won't be a TD threat, but he's like a Wes Welker lite. Good in PPR leagues or as a bye week filler/WR3 where you know you'll get solid, if pretty much unspectacular numbers.
Davone Bess:
The biggest enigma of this receiving trio. He won't be on the field the whole time, but he has his value as a bench WR, as Noodle Arm will be looking at him frequently in the slot. Good PPR bench player most likely, but not anywhere near starting material unless Camarillo bites the dust again.
Potential sleepers:
Patrick Turner and Brian Hartline (both WRs) make intriguing dynasty league sleepers, but won't make noise this year unless injuries devastate the rest of the WR corps. Keep an eye on them in preseason.
Chad Henne is supposedly the QB of the future, so again, a dynasty league prospect, but nothing you should worry about this year.
I don't see Pat White as anything special. Maybe in a 20 team dynasty league or something.
I have the Dolphins D ranked as the 17th best D. You'll likely need to look elsewhere.
Chad Pennington:
He was like the David Garrard of '07. Unspectacular, yet surprisingly solid. That said, his upside is pretty limited, and who knows what to make of the Henne chatter. Pat White may also see snaps at QB if he progresses some more in training camp and preseason. The Dolphins also don't see the West divisions again. Pennington makes for a decent bye week filler or midlevel QB2, but I wouldn't expect another 3600 yd, 19 TD, 7 INT performance.
Ronnie Brown:
Ah, what a conundrum. On one hand, he put up a ton of points in 1 big game last year (trust me, I remember. Week 3.). On the other hand, he's apparently looking amazing in training camp (for what it's worth), and is 2+ years removed from his big injury. I don't think Ricky is as big a threat for carries as he was last year, so Ronnie should be a solid RB2. Just don't expect loads of consistency week-in week-out. And do keep in mind he's still considered 'injury prone' for now.
Ricky Williams:
Ricky is handcuff/bench material in all leagues as Ronnie's backup, as he isn't getting any younger. I doubt he scores more than 5 TDs. However, if Ronnie should go down for some reason, Ricky should be a solid RB2/3.
Anthony Fasano:
I'm sorry, but last year was a fluke for this guy. Without the glut of TDs he had extremely mediocre stats all around, and he just isn't that skilled as a player. 7 TDs in 11 redzone targets is extremely lucky, and he wasn't thar targeted at all period. I have him ranked as the 17th best TE, so you can likely do better unless you're a nut and one of your leagues is a 20 teamer (i.e., me).
Ted Ginn Jr:
Imagine what the poor guy could do without Ol' Noodle Arm throwing to him (maybe not much regardless, but I digress.) Ginn will never be a solid PPR receiver, but what he can do is boom or bust a week for you, as evidenced by his 175 yard week and -1 yard week. He'll also never be a solid TD factor in the redzone or anywhere else because of his size. WR3 at best.
Greg Camarillo:
Before he went down in Week 13 last year, Camarillo was actually putting up fairly solid numbers. He'll always be competing with Ginn, Bess and the backs for looks, and won't be a TD threat, but he's like a Wes Welker lite. Good in PPR leagues or as a bye week filler/WR3 where you know you'll get solid, if pretty much unspectacular numbers.
Davone Bess:
The biggest enigma of this receiving trio. He won't be on the field the whole time, but he has his value as a bench WR, as Noodle Arm will be looking at him frequently in the slot. Good PPR bench player most likely, but not anywhere near starting material unless Camarillo bites the dust again.
Potential sleepers:
Patrick Turner and Brian Hartline (both WRs) make intriguing dynasty league sleepers, but won't make noise this year unless injuries devastate the rest of the WR corps. Keep an eye on them in preseason.
Chad Henne is supposedly the QB of the future, so again, a dynasty league prospect, but nothing you should worry about this year.
I don't see Pat White as anything special. Maybe in a 20 team dynasty league or something.
I have the Dolphins D ranked as the 17th best D. You'll likely need to look elsewhere.
Buffalo Bills Player Analysis
Starting off with the AFC East, since I know the most about that division since the Pats are in it.
Trent Edwards:
Alot of Edwards' success depends on 3 things:
1) How he can hold up for the 3 games without Lynch. Lynch was pretty much in every game last season, though he was nicked up a game or two. Fred Jackson is a solid pass-catcher, but if he's not an effective runner, opponents will give Edwards trouble initially.
2) The O-Line. This will be a season-long problem. Although Peters stunk it up last year, he was still a ProBowl caliber LT the year before, and the rest of the o-line is definitely subpar. A QB will always struggle at points with a decrepit o-line, and the Pats, Jets and Dolphins all have decent pass rushes. And the AFC East isn't playing crappy divisions this year.
3) The 'T.O. Effect'. Personally, I think TO will help, rather than hinder Edwards. T.O. actually historically increases Qbs #s in the first year he's with them, then starts causing problems the 2nd year. So management signed him to a 1 year contract. Smart. This will also cause Edwards to pass more, which will definitely boost his #s.
The bottom line for me is that Edwards should make a very solid QB2 this year. If the o-line can give Edwards time at all, he has 2 very good WRs who can make plays.
Marshawn Lynch:
People are saying drafters are underrating Lynch. I'm not buying that much. The Bills coaching staff has already announced they'll work Jackson into games more even when Lynch is back. This COULD be a good thing, as Lynch only had 2 TDs in the last half of last year. However, this likely means less yardage and less catches. I rate him as an RB2 around the Moreno, Grant and Ward area, but he could be lower than that if he doesn't get goal-line totes.
Fred Jackson:
A solid pass-catcher, and likely on the short end of an RBBC once Lynch is back. That said, he does play 2 beatable run Ds in the 3 weeks he's starting (TB/NO), and should make for a good top-end RB3 or so. Should be solid in PPR leagues as well.
Terrell Owens:
Edwards is the worst QB to be throwing to him in a long time, so I can't expect monster numbers. That said, he's still always a TD threat, and makes for a low-end WR1 or top WR2. And no, he won't cause trouble this year. He should be a lock for at least 1100 yards and 8 scores barring injury.
Lee Evans:
After getting double-teamed all his life, things are finally looking up for Lee. He should draw almost constant single coverage and potentially improve upon his yardage from last season. He'll be drawing CB2s instead of CB1s as well. That said, TO is a much bigger TD threat, so I can't see more than 5 TDs unless he catches a series of long bombs or something. A very solid WR2.
Potential sleepers:
Not many. Dominic Rhodes could be a solid back if someone goes down, but for now, he's WW fodder. Shawn Nelson could be a TE sleeper if the situation presents itself, but as of now, it looks like he'll get very little PT.
Oh, and you can do better than the Buffalo D in your league. Schobel isn't a guarantee till we see how he is after injury, and the D still has holes. But it does have potential with Maybin, Mckelvin, Posluzsny, etc.
Trent Edwards:
Alot of Edwards' success depends on 3 things:
1) How he can hold up for the 3 games without Lynch. Lynch was pretty much in every game last season, though he was nicked up a game or two. Fred Jackson is a solid pass-catcher, but if he's not an effective runner, opponents will give Edwards trouble initially.
2) The O-Line. This will be a season-long problem. Although Peters stunk it up last year, he was still a ProBowl caliber LT the year before, and the rest of the o-line is definitely subpar. A QB will always struggle at points with a decrepit o-line, and the Pats, Jets and Dolphins all have decent pass rushes. And the AFC East isn't playing crappy divisions this year.
3) The 'T.O. Effect'. Personally, I think TO will help, rather than hinder Edwards. T.O. actually historically increases Qbs #s in the first year he's with them, then starts causing problems the 2nd year. So management signed him to a 1 year contract. Smart. This will also cause Edwards to pass more, which will definitely boost his #s.
The bottom line for me is that Edwards should make a very solid QB2 this year. If the o-line can give Edwards time at all, he has 2 very good WRs who can make plays.
Marshawn Lynch:
People are saying drafters are underrating Lynch. I'm not buying that much. The Bills coaching staff has already announced they'll work Jackson into games more even when Lynch is back. This COULD be a good thing, as Lynch only had 2 TDs in the last half of last year. However, this likely means less yardage and less catches. I rate him as an RB2 around the Moreno, Grant and Ward area, but he could be lower than that if he doesn't get goal-line totes.
Fred Jackson:
A solid pass-catcher, and likely on the short end of an RBBC once Lynch is back. That said, he does play 2 beatable run Ds in the 3 weeks he's starting (TB/NO), and should make for a good top-end RB3 or so. Should be solid in PPR leagues as well.
Terrell Owens:
Edwards is the worst QB to be throwing to him in a long time, so I can't expect monster numbers. That said, he's still always a TD threat, and makes for a low-end WR1 or top WR2. And no, he won't cause trouble this year. He should be a lock for at least 1100 yards and 8 scores barring injury.
Lee Evans:
After getting double-teamed all his life, things are finally looking up for Lee. He should draw almost constant single coverage and potentially improve upon his yardage from last season. He'll be drawing CB2s instead of CB1s as well. That said, TO is a much bigger TD threat, so I can't see more than 5 TDs unless he catches a series of long bombs or something. A very solid WR2.
Potential sleepers:
Not many. Dominic Rhodes could be a solid back if someone goes down, but for now, he's WW fodder. Shawn Nelson could be a TE sleeper if the situation presents itself, but as of now, it looks like he'll get very little PT.
Oh, and you can do better than the Buffalo D in your league. Schobel isn't a guarantee till we see how he is after injury, and the D still has holes. But it does have potential with Maybin, Mckelvin, Posluzsny, etc.
Starting fresh
Decided I'm gonna start this thing fresh and exclusively devoted towards fantasy sports. I'll post team-by-team analysis in the upcoming weeks (I'll try to do a team or two a day), and I'll post stuff like my extensive tiers and sleepers and stuff after a few more of my drafts (since I know some people in my various leagues may read this).
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