Was supposed to be 16 teams, but went to 14 since some people are cheap and some couldn't make the draft day, and this was the only day that worked. BAH. Anyways, here's the team:
QB: Matt Ryan
WR: Wes Welker, Eddie Royal
RB: Maurice Jones-Drew, Kevin Smith
TE: Dustin Keller
W/R: Desean Jackson
K: David Akers (I usually rotate kickers though)
D: New England
BN: Joe Flacco, Davone Bess, Chaz Schilens, Hakeem Nicks, Lesean Mccoy, Tim Hightower
And remember...it's a PPR. There's a reason I have Welker, Royal and Bess :P
Monday, August 17, 2009
Cleveland Browns Player Analysis
Brady Quinn and Derek Anderson:
I expect Quinn to win the QB battle (unless the Browns are stingy and give DA majority of snaps to save 5 million bucks), but that's not saying much. His primary target is renowned for dropping passes, and the first preseason game showcased exactly that. He lost a nice target in Winslow, and his stats in his limited starts last year really weren't impressive. I'm staying away from this situation regardless of who wins, and you would be wise to do the same.
Braylon Edwards:
Coming into training camps, I had hopes that Edwards would rebound a bit from last year's dismal campaign. Now, I'm not so sure. He's been nicked up all camp, and apparently he still has the same stone hands that caused headaches last year. He could still do better than last year, but I don't think he'll come anywhere near his monster 2007 campaign. I initially had him around Ochocinco and Roy Williams, but now he's more on the Lee Evans, Anthony Gonzalez type level to me. Draft as a WR2, but be prepared for bumps.
Brian Robiskie:
I considered him the most pro-ready WR coming out of the draft, but apparently he's done nothing to show he's ready to start. I know training camp is just training camp, but for a rookie, he must shine because he's still fighting for a starting spot. Robiskie has the potential to be a nice asset in PPR leagues as a lowend WR3 type guy, but as of now, he's a bench stash.
Mohammed Massaquoi:
Not even sure why I'm mentioning him other than to put him on your radar if he's not. Apparently he's looked better than Robiskie in camp, and he can theoretically play either split end or flanker if need be. Keep him on your radar, store him in pretty deep leagues, and see if he gets a starting spot and how he does this preseason.
Jamal Lewis:
The starter for now, he's worth an RB3 pick simply because he's not entrenched in a huge committee like some of the people being drafted around him. That said, he's not the most talented guy any more, and his role could easily be reduced this season. He's around the Lendale/Felix/Benson territory for me (remember, always PPR).
James Davis:
Note that I'm leaving Jerome Harrison off my big list and keeping James Davis on here. Davis has apparently been a monster in camp, and has been on my radar even before then. Probably not draftable in 12 or even 14 team leagues, but he's someone to watch in deep leagues, and someone to draft in dynasty leagues for sure. See how this RB trio shakes up in the coming weeks, because it could get interesting. I'm guessing we see Harrison as the 3rd down RB and Lewis getting the majority of the carries in the early goings of the season, with Davis getting more and more as the season progresses, especially as the Browns fall out of the playoff picture.
I'm not considering the Cleveland D, and neither are you.
Potential sleepers:
I listed a couple up above. I don't really consider Jerome Harrison a sleeper, I just didn't feel he warrants a writeup. One to note is Martin Rucker, entrenched in the TE depths of Cleveland for now. He's by far more skilled than Robert Royal or Steve Heiden, but whether the opportunity is there yet or not is debatable. Mike Furrey could be a sneaky PPR play if there's an injury to a WR or two out there as well, and may likely see time in the slot regardless (don't forget he had a 100 catch campaign in 2006).
I expect Quinn to win the QB battle (unless the Browns are stingy and give DA majority of snaps to save 5 million bucks), but that's not saying much. His primary target is renowned for dropping passes, and the first preseason game showcased exactly that. He lost a nice target in Winslow, and his stats in his limited starts last year really weren't impressive. I'm staying away from this situation regardless of who wins, and you would be wise to do the same.
Braylon Edwards:
Coming into training camps, I had hopes that Edwards would rebound a bit from last year's dismal campaign. Now, I'm not so sure. He's been nicked up all camp, and apparently he still has the same stone hands that caused headaches last year. He could still do better than last year, but I don't think he'll come anywhere near his monster 2007 campaign. I initially had him around Ochocinco and Roy Williams, but now he's more on the Lee Evans, Anthony Gonzalez type level to me. Draft as a WR2, but be prepared for bumps.
Brian Robiskie:
I considered him the most pro-ready WR coming out of the draft, but apparently he's done nothing to show he's ready to start. I know training camp is just training camp, but for a rookie, he must shine because he's still fighting for a starting spot. Robiskie has the potential to be a nice asset in PPR leagues as a lowend WR3 type guy, but as of now, he's a bench stash.
Mohammed Massaquoi:
Not even sure why I'm mentioning him other than to put him on your radar if he's not. Apparently he's looked better than Robiskie in camp, and he can theoretically play either split end or flanker if need be. Keep him on your radar, store him in pretty deep leagues, and see if he gets a starting spot and how he does this preseason.
Jamal Lewis:
The starter for now, he's worth an RB3 pick simply because he's not entrenched in a huge committee like some of the people being drafted around him. That said, he's not the most talented guy any more, and his role could easily be reduced this season. He's around the Lendale/Felix/Benson territory for me (remember, always PPR).
James Davis:
Note that I'm leaving Jerome Harrison off my big list and keeping James Davis on here. Davis has apparently been a monster in camp, and has been on my radar even before then. Probably not draftable in 12 or even 14 team leagues, but he's someone to watch in deep leagues, and someone to draft in dynasty leagues for sure. See how this RB trio shakes up in the coming weeks, because it could get interesting. I'm guessing we see Harrison as the 3rd down RB and Lewis getting the majority of the carries in the early goings of the season, with Davis getting more and more as the season progresses, especially as the Browns fall out of the playoff picture.
I'm not considering the Cleveland D, and neither are you.
Potential sleepers:
I listed a couple up above. I don't really consider Jerome Harrison a sleeper, I just didn't feel he warrants a writeup. One to note is Martin Rucker, entrenched in the TE depths of Cleveland for now. He's by far more skilled than Robert Royal or Steve Heiden, but whether the opportunity is there yet or not is debatable. Mike Furrey could be a sneaky PPR play if there's an injury to a WR or two out there as well, and may likely see time in the slot regardless (don't forget he had a 100 catch campaign in 2006).
Wednesday, August 12, 2009
Cincinnati Bengals Player Analysis
I know, the updates aren't exactly daily, but they're coming along. Studying for the CFA test has been kicking my butt. Anyways, the full slate of preseason games is about to start, which is a good thing for us true fantasy gamers, as we get to see which of our potential later round picks might end up with starting gigs, who looks better in a game situation, etc. Onto the Bungles!
Carson Palmer:
People seem to be scared of him to this day because of his injury problems. However, keep in mind that before last season, his TD totals were 33, 28 and 26, respectively. As with any other Qb who might face an injury scare for a fantasy owner, you'll want a decent QB2. However, Palmer seems to be damn good value at this point in time. An ADP calculator I'm looking at his him being taken at 8.03 in 12 team leagues, just behind the likes of Ryan, Schaub and Cutler. I actually have him pencilled in right around that range, but I doubt Ryan or Cutler have 4,000 yard, 30+ TD potential like Palmer does. If he drops behind the likes of Big Ben, Cassel, etc, snag him immediately and watch the dividends pay, even as trade bait if/once he regains form. He'll be a solid QB1 if healthy, and though he lost Housh, still has an attractive second option in Coles, and a couple other intriguing players I'll discuss here in a sec.
Chad Ochocinco:
Coming into last season, I never valued Chad as high as other people did. This is because of the consistency factor. He would produce a couple monster games a year (150 yard, 2 TD performances) that would likely spur you to victory, but in many other weeks, he would average around 4 receptions and 45-60 yards. As a WR1, those aren't numbers I want. However, this year, he's being drafted as a WR2, and you can be damn sure I'll take a WR2 that has the potential to win me a week with a monster game. He may be a little nutty in the head, but at least you'll have an entertainer on your squad if you do take him, and he's currently being drafted around the likes of Vincent Jackson, Braylon, Marshall, Roy Williams and Desean. Since I'm a PPR devotee, I'd likely take him over any of those names I just listed. Take him as your WR2 and have some good depth and if Palmer is healthy, you'll be happy you did at year end.
Laveranues Coles:
Why are all the Bungles seemingly undervalued this year. Coles is not a flashy receiver at all, but he should fill in adequately as the Bengals 2nd option very well. In his 4 years with the Jets, he averaged 6 TDs a season, and that was with some cruddy QB action going on. He's one of those guys will relatively little upside, but seems safer to me than some of the guys being taken near him (Lance Moore, Berrian, Avery, etc.) A fairly safe if unspectacular low-end WR2, or high-end WR3. Just remember my thoughts on low upside, proven guys: you'll typically want a couple high upside, high risk/reward guys on the bench to kind of even the flow of things.
Chase Coffman:
To be honest, I don't know much about how much time he'll get now that Reggie Kelly is out for the year. Obviously he'll see more snaps, but at this point in time, he's no more than a mid to low level TE2 in my eyes. Take a wait and see approach in the weeks leading up to the regular season if you have late drafts.
Cedric Benson:
This guy is very polarizing in fantasy circles. Some say he's a great pick because he's not in an RBBC, which is rare to find in the middle/late draft rounds. On the other hand, some say he's Cedric Benson (you know, the guy with Cedric Benson-like skills). Benson makes for a good RB3 or low-end RB2 provided you're solid at the WR position (ADP in the 7th round, where I think he's worth it). I say he's worth the shot simply because he does have the lion's share of the carries. For now. But I don't like him in dynasty leagues, and there's one reason for that. His name is...
Bernard Scott:
The AFC North has 2 rookie backs that make me salivate in dynasty leagues. This guy is one of them. The verdict is still out as to whether he'll be able to see time this season. He's currently at the #3 spot since the team released Kenny Watson (a good sign for Scott owners), and no one is delusional enough to think Brian Leonard will hold this guy off for seasons to come as the #2 back. Pick him in dynasty drafts, pick him in dynasty rookie drafts, pick him in leagues with BIG benches in redrafts (I'm okay with him on the WW in a standard 12, 14 teamer with smaller benches...for now). Just watch this guy closer than you'd watch your kids in a shark pool. Because all of a sudden, he might bite (NYUK NYUK NYUK).
The Bengals D: Oh, shutup. You're not in a 26 team league.
Potential sleepers:
I already mentioned Coffman and Scott. The other two of relevance are Andre Caldwell and Chris Henry, both WRs. Right now, Caldwell has the #3 job, but Henry is very likely to rotate in at various spots to spell all the WRs. Henry has MUCH more potential (Carson Palmer called him the next Randy Moss...haha, good luck kid), but as of now, Caldwell has the playing time. At the late stages in the draft I always take potential over a mediocre option on a team unless it's Brandon Stokley on the Colts, but whatever suits your team better, do it if you must.
(By the way, there's a WR on the Bengals with the last name 'Purify'. That's awesome.)
Carson Palmer:
People seem to be scared of him to this day because of his injury problems. However, keep in mind that before last season, his TD totals were 33, 28 and 26, respectively. As with any other Qb who might face an injury scare for a fantasy owner, you'll want a decent QB2. However, Palmer seems to be damn good value at this point in time. An ADP calculator I'm looking at his him being taken at 8.03 in 12 team leagues, just behind the likes of Ryan, Schaub and Cutler. I actually have him pencilled in right around that range, but I doubt Ryan or Cutler have 4,000 yard, 30+ TD potential like Palmer does. If he drops behind the likes of Big Ben, Cassel, etc, snag him immediately and watch the dividends pay, even as trade bait if/once he regains form. He'll be a solid QB1 if healthy, and though he lost Housh, still has an attractive second option in Coles, and a couple other intriguing players I'll discuss here in a sec.
Chad Ochocinco:
Coming into last season, I never valued Chad as high as other people did. This is because of the consistency factor. He would produce a couple monster games a year (150 yard, 2 TD performances) that would likely spur you to victory, but in many other weeks, he would average around 4 receptions and 45-60 yards. As a WR1, those aren't numbers I want. However, this year, he's being drafted as a WR2, and you can be damn sure I'll take a WR2 that has the potential to win me a week with a monster game. He may be a little nutty in the head, but at least you'll have an entertainer on your squad if you do take him, and he's currently being drafted around the likes of Vincent Jackson, Braylon, Marshall, Roy Williams and Desean. Since I'm a PPR devotee, I'd likely take him over any of those names I just listed. Take him as your WR2 and have some good depth and if Palmer is healthy, you'll be happy you did at year end.
Laveranues Coles:
Why are all the Bungles seemingly undervalued this year. Coles is not a flashy receiver at all, but he should fill in adequately as the Bengals 2nd option very well. In his 4 years with the Jets, he averaged 6 TDs a season, and that was with some cruddy QB action going on. He's one of those guys will relatively little upside, but seems safer to me than some of the guys being taken near him (Lance Moore, Berrian, Avery, etc.) A fairly safe if unspectacular low-end WR2, or high-end WR3. Just remember my thoughts on low upside, proven guys: you'll typically want a couple high upside, high risk/reward guys on the bench to kind of even the flow of things.
Chase Coffman:
To be honest, I don't know much about how much time he'll get now that Reggie Kelly is out for the year. Obviously he'll see more snaps, but at this point in time, he's no more than a mid to low level TE2 in my eyes. Take a wait and see approach in the weeks leading up to the regular season if you have late drafts.
Cedric Benson:
This guy is very polarizing in fantasy circles. Some say he's a great pick because he's not in an RBBC, which is rare to find in the middle/late draft rounds. On the other hand, some say he's Cedric Benson (you know, the guy with Cedric Benson-like skills). Benson makes for a good RB3 or low-end RB2 provided you're solid at the WR position (ADP in the 7th round, where I think he's worth it). I say he's worth the shot simply because he does have the lion's share of the carries. For now. But I don't like him in dynasty leagues, and there's one reason for that. His name is...
Bernard Scott:
The AFC North has 2 rookie backs that make me salivate in dynasty leagues. This guy is one of them. The verdict is still out as to whether he'll be able to see time this season. He's currently at the #3 spot since the team released Kenny Watson (a good sign for Scott owners), and no one is delusional enough to think Brian Leonard will hold this guy off for seasons to come as the #2 back. Pick him in dynasty drafts, pick him in dynasty rookie drafts, pick him in leagues with BIG benches in redrafts (I'm okay with him on the WW in a standard 12, 14 teamer with smaller benches...for now). Just watch this guy closer than you'd watch your kids in a shark pool. Because all of a sudden, he might bite (NYUK NYUK NYUK).
The Bengals D: Oh, shutup. You're not in a 26 team league.
Potential sleepers:
I already mentioned Coffman and Scott. The other two of relevance are Andre Caldwell and Chris Henry, both WRs. Right now, Caldwell has the #3 job, but Henry is very likely to rotate in at various spots to spell all the WRs. Henry has MUCH more potential (Carson Palmer called him the next Randy Moss...haha, good luck kid), but as of now, Caldwell has the playing time. At the late stages in the draft I always take potential over a mediocre option on a team unless it's Brandon Stokley on the Colts, but whatever suits your team better, do it if you must.
(By the way, there's a WR on the Bengals with the last name 'Purify'. That's awesome.)
Sunday, August 9, 2009
Baltimore Ravens Player Analysis
Joe Flacco:
Flacco will be interesting this season. It'll be hard to repeat his real-life success from last season, Mason is a year older, Clayton is currently sidelined 4-6 weeks...it seems like things are in chaos, but things will settle down. That said, he's still a QB2 because the Ravens will be a run-first, defensive, low scoring game type team, as always. They won't be out of that many games, so Flacco won't get much garbage time yardage. He'll get you 250/2 at BEST on any given week, and an average week will likely be something like 175 yards and 1 TD. You do the math...his ceiling is likely the low 3000s in yardage and mid to high teens in TDs.
Derrick Mason:
Old man Mason back again...he scared a ton of people with his 'retirement', but he should be back to the same old tricks, and those tricks are a PPR asset as a WR2/3 or a WR3 in non-PPR. I mentioned he's a year older, but he's extremely savvy (is that word used too much?), and has the tools that most older successful WRs have: toughness, good hands, and good routes. Expect 70+ receptions and yardage approaching 1,000 once again.
Mark Clayton:
Ugh. This injury could be pretty ugly if Demetrius Williams can stay healthy, since Clayton is out virtually all of preseason and is no lock for the WR2 slot anymore. Funny how he went from WR1 on the team to a potential WR3. Anyways, you know what to expect from Clayton provided he still starts: most weeks will consist of 3 catch, 30 yard performances, with a random big game sprinkled in every 6 weeks or so. That should tell you what you need to know about him.
Demetrius Williams:
I only mention him because he has a chance to supplant Clayton as the 2nd WR, as aforementioned. I think he's a better receiver in many ways than Clayton and has more potential, but he needs to stay healthy. He'll never be a PPR dynamo, but has big play ability, and relatively decent size at 6'2 to be a potential help in the redzone. Monitor what happens in the preseason closely.
The Three Headed Monster (Ray Rice, Willis Mcgahee, Leron Mcclain):
Let me say I was a genius for avoiding Mcgahee in every draft last year. That said, this could be a fantasy owner's nightmare, or Rice could win a good chunk of the carries. So here's how this breaks down: Draft Rice with the knowledge that if any one back breaks from the pack, it will be him. He's also a plus in PPR leagues, and has by far the most potential of the three backs. Mcclain is still a bruiser and will likely see goal-line carries, but noise that he might play fullback more does scare me a bit. Regardless, invest in him sooner than you'd invest in Mcgahee. Mcgahee does make a good late round flier in that if he stays healthy, he CAN succeed somehow/somewhere, but for now, I think he's just a change of pace guy without a specific priority. I took him late in a dynasty league as a flier as well (some round in the high teens), because maybe he gets traded if Rice works out well in BAL. Who knows. Aren't RBBC's the best?
Todd Heap and LJ Smith:
Who knows how this shakes out. They're both solid TEs when healthy, but Heap seems to be regressing fast, and LJ Smith is just way too random for my liking. Neither should be your starting TE.
The Baltimore defense is ranked 2nd in my books behind Pittsburgh (for now). They did lose Rex Ryan and a couple key players, but they have the same mentality and leadership they've always had. Don't be surprised if there's a bit of regression, but a top tier D in all likelihood.
Potential sleepers:
Only a couple people here to note. Justin Harper and Marcus Smith need to be monitored in deep leagues or dynasties. They've both got appropriate skills to be an asset at some point in their careers, and PT could be likely for them since Clayton is hurt and Demetrius is almost always hurt at some point in the season. If Clayton/Demetrius do go down, these guys would be serious steals.
Flacco will be interesting this season. It'll be hard to repeat his real-life success from last season, Mason is a year older, Clayton is currently sidelined 4-6 weeks...it seems like things are in chaos, but things will settle down. That said, he's still a QB2 because the Ravens will be a run-first, defensive, low scoring game type team, as always. They won't be out of that many games, so Flacco won't get much garbage time yardage. He'll get you 250/2 at BEST on any given week, and an average week will likely be something like 175 yards and 1 TD. You do the math...his ceiling is likely the low 3000s in yardage and mid to high teens in TDs.
Derrick Mason:
Old man Mason back again...he scared a ton of people with his 'retirement', but he should be back to the same old tricks, and those tricks are a PPR asset as a WR2/3 or a WR3 in non-PPR. I mentioned he's a year older, but he's extremely savvy (is that word used too much?), and has the tools that most older successful WRs have: toughness, good hands, and good routes. Expect 70+ receptions and yardage approaching 1,000 once again.
Mark Clayton:
Ugh. This injury could be pretty ugly if Demetrius Williams can stay healthy, since Clayton is out virtually all of preseason and is no lock for the WR2 slot anymore. Funny how he went from WR1 on the team to a potential WR3. Anyways, you know what to expect from Clayton provided he still starts: most weeks will consist of 3 catch, 30 yard performances, with a random big game sprinkled in every 6 weeks or so. That should tell you what you need to know about him.
Demetrius Williams:
I only mention him because he has a chance to supplant Clayton as the 2nd WR, as aforementioned. I think he's a better receiver in many ways than Clayton and has more potential, but he needs to stay healthy. He'll never be a PPR dynamo, but has big play ability, and relatively decent size at 6'2 to be a potential help in the redzone. Monitor what happens in the preseason closely.
The Three Headed Monster (Ray Rice, Willis Mcgahee, Leron Mcclain):
Let me say I was a genius for avoiding Mcgahee in every draft last year. That said, this could be a fantasy owner's nightmare, or Rice could win a good chunk of the carries. So here's how this breaks down: Draft Rice with the knowledge that if any one back breaks from the pack, it will be him. He's also a plus in PPR leagues, and has by far the most potential of the three backs. Mcclain is still a bruiser and will likely see goal-line carries, but noise that he might play fullback more does scare me a bit. Regardless, invest in him sooner than you'd invest in Mcgahee. Mcgahee does make a good late round flier in that if he stays healthy, he CAN succeed somehow/somewhere, but for now, I think he's just a change of pace guy without a specific priority. I took him late in a dynasty league as a flier as well (some round in the high teens), because maybe he gets traded if Rice works out well in BAL. Who knows. Aren't RBBC's the best?
Todd Heap and LJ Smith:
Who knows how this shakes out. They're both solid TEs when healthy, but Heap seems to be regressing fast, and LJ Smith is just way too random for my liking. Neither should be your starting TE.
The Baltimore defense is ranked 2nd in my books behind Pittsburgh (for now). They did lose Rex Ryan and a couple key players, but they have the same mentality and leadership they've always had. Don't be surprised if there's a bit of regression, but a top tier D in all likelihood.
Potential sleepers:
Only a couple people here to note. Justin Harper and Marcus Smith need to be monitored in deep leagues or dynasties. They've both got appropriate skills to be an asset at some point in their careers, and PT could be likely for them since Clayton is hurt and Demetrius is almost always hurt at some point in the season. If Clayton/Demetrius do go down, these guys would be serious steals.
Thursday, August 6, 2009
Tennessee Titans Player Analysis
Kerry Collins:
A year older with slightly upgraded weapons. In reality, you and I both know that means less than a TD per game on average and likely a total yardage range from 2500-2800. You don't need him sniffing your roster in anything but a deep league.
Justin Gage:
Seemed to be Collins's go-to guy last year, for whatever that's worth. He won't approach 1,000 yards or anything, but makes for a decent bye-week filler WR3/4 type guy. At the very least, he sees targets, and even with Washington on the team, will be capable of weeks approaching 80-90 yards. He's been injured here and there in his career too though, so keep that in mind.
Nate Washington:
I'm not a huge fan of Washington, but I guess they needed anything they could get at WR. Like Gage, he won't be that reliable, and in fact might be a slight negative in a PPR league, but he can definitely get you some 2 catch, 70 yard type weeks, and will see more targets than he did in Pittsburgh. Draftable slightly after Gage in my opinion.
Chris Johnson:
Last year in my 16 team league, people scoffed at me taking him in the 5th round. Ha. HAH. Anyways, Johnson should be in line for more touches, he can catch, and hopefully Lendale vultures less stuff from him. Jeff Fisher has been quoted as wanting to use him more as well, and he still has a great o-line intact for him. I have him at #6 right now (PPR rankings, as always), so definitely draftable in the top 10. A solid dynasty league first rounder obviously.
Lenwhale White (om nom nom):
Why is it whenever I see his name I want a cheeseburger? Anyways, he's supposedly in better shape (not hard to do), but he's not the future of the team. He'll definitely get his vultures in, but I'll bet he won't get 15 TDs again. Maybe high single digits or something. Downgrade in PPR, upgrade in TD heavy leagues...you know the drill.
Bo Scaife:
A fairly decent tight end (can be boom or bust considering he had lines of 6/105, 10/78/1, and multiple 1 catch games). I assume Jared Cook might get in on some of the action, so a TE2 at best for now.
The Tennessee D gets a drop due to Haynesworth leaving, but people are underrating what Jason Jones will be able to do in his place. Not only will he make a solid DT IDP'er (which I rarely comment on since it's not my thing), but he makes it so teams won't start destroying the Titans with the run game without Big Al. I have them as the 7th best D for now, draftable in all league formats.
Potential sleepers:
Kenny Britt stands out as the biggest one, but I don't think he has much value in a redraft unless it's a deep league or dynasty. Considering he plays in a run-first offense with Collins at the helm and 2 WRs ahead of him on the depth chart, don't look for much this year. We all know who Vince Young is, but who knows how that situation will play out. Monitor, but do not draft. Not much else in terms of sleeper potential here since they have an RB for the future and it's not really a passing team.
A year older with slightly upgraded weapons. In reality, you and I both know that means less than a TD per game on average and likely a total yardage range from 2500-2800. You don't need him sniffing your roster in anything but a deep league.
Justin Gage:
Seemed to be Collins's go-to guy last year, for whatever that's worth. He won't approach 1,000 yards or anything, but makes for a decent bye-week filler WR3/4 type guy. At the very least, he sees targets, and even with Washington on the team, will be capable of weeks approaching 80-90 yards. He's been injured here and there in his career too though, so keep that in mind.
Nate Washington:
I'm not a huge fan of Washington, but I guess they needed anything they could get at WR. Like Gage, he won't be that reliable, and in fact might be a slight negative in a PPR league, but he can definitely get you some 2 catch, 70 yard type weeks, and will see more targets than he did in Pittsburgh. Draftable slightly after Gage in my opinion.
Chris Johnson:
Last year in my 16 team league, people scoffed at me taking him in the 5th round. Ha. HAH. Anyways, Johnson should be in line for more touches, he can catch, and hopefully Lendale vultures less stuff from him. Jeff Fisher has been quoted as wanting to use him more as well, and he still has a great o-line intact for him. I have him at #6 right now (PPR rankings, as always), so definitely draftable in the top 10. A solid dynasty league first rounder obviously.
Lenwhale White (om nom nom):
Why is it whenever I see his name I want a cheeseburger? Anyways, he's supposedly in better shape (not hard to do), but he's not the future of the team. He'll definitely get his vultures in, but I'll bet he won't get 15 TDs again. Maybe high single digits or something. Downgrade in PPR, upgrade in TD heavy leagues...you know the drill.
Bo Scaife:
A fairly decent tight end (can be boom or bust considering he had lines of 6/105, 10/78/1, and multiple 1 catch games). I assume Jared Cook might get in on some of the action, so a TE2 at best for now.
The Tennessee D gets a drop due to Haynesworth leaving, but people are underrating what Jason Jones will be able to do in his place. Not only will he make a solid DT IDP'er (which I rarely comment on since it's not my thing), but he makes it so teams won't start destroying the Titans with the run game without Big Al. I have them as the 7th best D for now, draftable in all league formats.
Potential sleepers:
Kenny Britt stands out as the biggest one, but I don't think he has much value in a redraft unless it's a deep league or dynasty. Considering he plays in a run-first offense with Collins at the helm and 2 WRs ahead of him on the depth chart, don't look for much this year. We all know who Vince Young is, but who knows how that situation will play out. Monitor, but do not draft. Not much else in terms of sleeper potential here since they have an RB for the future and it's not really a passing team.
Tuesday, August 4, 2009
Jacksonville Jaguars Players Analysis
David Garrard:
2 years ago, Garrard had a really nice season and everyone thought he was primed for a breakout last year. Unfortunately, his o-line got absoutely wrecked, and in the process, so did his candidacy for breaking out. This year, the Jags brought in 2 promising rookie o-linemen (Monroe and Britton), get healthy vets back, and even have great backups like Tra Thomas should something bad happen. Garrard also gets an extremely reliable target in Torry Holt. Expect top 15 numbers with relative consistency and very few boom weeks.
Torry Holt:
He's getting old, but he's still reliable. Long gone are the high reception days and even the high TD days, but Holt makes for a fine vet if the rest of your WR corps is young guys. I like comparing him to a Donald Driver and a Hines Ward in that you likely know what you're getting: low upside, but low bust possibility. Holt is one of the best, if not the best route runner in the league, so he knows how to get open despite his age, and you can bet Garrard will look his way with regularity. Consider Holt a low WR2 or good WR3.
Maurice Jones-Drew:
Ahh, MJD. I have a bunch invested in him this season (he's in pretty much all my important league), but that was half-fluke thanks to high draft picks. Anyways, I have MJD pencilled in as the #2 overall pick in non-PPR, and #1 overall pick in PPR for several reasons. A big one is the o-line upgrades that I mentioned in the Garrard blurb. The second big reason is that as you all know, Fred Taylor has gone to the Pats (holler!), leaving MJD to see a nice increase in touches. I've seen concerns that he won't be able to handle a full load, but every RB in the game has injury risks in some way, and he's more than proven he's a capable RB. Smaller RBs (ie Slaton) have also recently performed well. I'm not foolish enough to think he'll get 325+ carries, but 2,000 total yards and 12-18 TDs are well within reach. Consider that last year he was the RB6 with a bad o-line and an RBBC. He's scored almost 40 TDs in 3 years in the league, has caught at least 40+ passes per year, has averaged at least 4.2 YPC per year, and at least 8.1 yards per catch per year. You want consistency and a non-bust from your RB1 (ask Addai owners last year), and I think MJD is up there with Peterson in terms of safety. Consider me sold.
Marcedes Lewis:
Lewis came along slowly last year. He offers nice size at 6'6", and since Matt Jones is gone, might see a couple more touchdowns. 550+ yds and 4+ TDs aren't out of the question, so he can be targeted as a pretty low TE1 in deep leagues or a TE2 in any format.
The Jaguars D is one I'm avoiding this year.They were a bottom 6 D last year, and only 2 of their draft picks were defensive. Pass.
Potential sleepers:
Ahh, now we come to the fun part about the Jags. You'll notice there's very few players you'll want on your starting rosters from the team, but boy oh boy is there potential abound for your 20 teamers and deep dynasties. I'll start with my favorite, Mike Walker. This guy has had the tools to get it done in the NFL for awhile now, but always seems to get bitten by the injury bug in some way. The 2 games he was fully healthy last year, he put up 11 receptions and over 150 yards. Of course, 2 out of 16 games won't cut it in fantasy leagues, but someone to monitor in redrafts and dynasties alike, as he has the starting gig as long as he's healthy. The Jags also have 3 very promising rookies in Mike Thomas, Jarrett Dillard and Tiquan Underwood. I'm very interested in seeing how they do in camps and preseason, but for now, dynasty league material only unless Holt or Walker gets injured. Thomas and Dillard project as slot receivers, while Underwood is more of a deep threat. And it's not like Troy Williams is any good, so they should get their shots. Zach Miller is buried in the TE depth chart (make sure you draft the Oakland Miller and not this one btw...don't make a mistake), but there are some whiffs of him potentially producing in a few years. Lastly, Chauncey Washington, Greg Jones and Rashad Jennings are all competing for MJD's backup spot. At this point, none of them are likely worth a handcuff, but Jennings is someone to keep an eye on in dynasties (he's the most intriguing to me, and the staff seems to like him). Jones and Jennings will likely compete for goal-line carries this year if MJD does go down, but this isn't guaranteed 'til we see what happens come Week 1.
2 years ago, Garrard had a really nice season and everyone thought he was primed for a breakout last year. Unfortunately, his o-line got absoutely wrecked, and in the process, so did his candidacy for breaking out. This year, the Jags brought in 2 promising rookie o-linemen (Monroe and Britton), get healthy vets back, and even have great backups like Tra Thomas should something bad happen. Garrard also gets an extremely reliable target in Torry Holt. Expect top 15 numbers with relative consistency and very few boom weeks.
Torry Holt:
He's getting old, but he's still reliable. Long gone are the high reception days and even the high TD days, but Holt makes for a fine vet if the rest of your WR corps is young guys. I like comparing him to a Donald Driver and a Hines Ward in that you likely know what you're getting: low upside, but low bust possibility. Holt is one of the best, if not the best route runner in the league, so he knows how to get open despite his age, and you can bet Garrard will look his way with regularity. Consider Holt a low WR2 or good WR3.
Maurice Jones-Drew:
Ahh, MJD. I have a bunch invested in him this season (he's in pretty much all my important league), but that was half-fluke thanks to high draft picks. Anyways, I have MJD pencilled in as the #2 overall pick in non-PPR, and #1 overall pick in PPR for several reasons. A big one is the o-line upgrades that I mentioned in the Garrard blurb. The second big reason is that as you all know, Fred Taylor has gone to the Pats (holler!), leaving MJD to see a nice increase in touches. I've seen concerns that he won't be able to handle a full load, but every RB in the game has injury risks in some way, and he's more than proven he's a capable RB. Smaller RBs (ie Slaton) have also recently performed well. I'm not foolish enough to think he'll get 325+ carries, but 2,000 total yards and 12-18 TDs are well within reach. Consider that last year he was the RB6 with a bad o-line and an RBBC. He's scored almost 40 TDs in 3 years in the league, has caught at least 40+ passes per year, has averaged at least 4.2 YPC per year, and at least 8.1 yards per catch per year. You want consistency and a non-bust from your RB1 (ask Addai owners last year), and I think MJD is up there with Peterson in terms of safety. Consider me sold.
Marcedes Lewis:
Lewis came along slowly last year. He offers nice size at 6'6", and since Matt Jones is gone, might see a couple more touchdowns. 550+ yds and 4+ TDs aren't out of the question, so he can be targeted as a pretty low TE1 in deep leagues or a TE2 in any format.
The Jaguars D is one I'm avoiding this year.They were a bottom 6 D last year, and only 2 of their draft picks were defensive. Pass.
Potential sleepers:
Ahh, now we come to the fun part about the Jags. You'll notice there's very few players you'll want on your starting rosters from the team, but boy oh boy is there potential abound for your 20 teamers and deep dynasties. I'll start with my favorite, Mike Walker. This guy has had the tools to get it done in the NFL for awhile now, but always seems to get bitten by the injury bug in some way. The 2 games he was fully healthy last year, he put up 11 receptions and over 150 yards. Of course, 2 out of 16 games won't cut it in fantasy leagues, but someone to monitor in redrafts and dynasties alike, as he has the starting gig as long as he's healthy. The Jags also have 3 very promising rookies in Mike Thomas, Jarrett Dillard and Tiquan Underwood. I'm very interested in seeing how they do in camps and preseason, but for now, dynasty league material only unless Holt or Walker gets injured. Thomas and Dillard project as slot receivers, while Underwood is more of a deep threat. And it's not like Troy Williams is any good, so they should get their shots. Zach Miller is buried in the TE depth chart (make sure you draft the Oakland Miller and not this one btw...don't make a mistake), but there are some whiffs of him potentially producing in a few years. Lastly, Chauncey Washington, Greg Jones and Rashad Jennings are all competing for MJD's backup spot. At this point, none of them are likely worth a handcuff, but Jennings is someone to keep an eye on in dynasties (he's the most intriguing to me, and the staff seems to like him). Jones and Jennings will likely compete for goal-line carries this year if MJD does go down, but this isn't guaranteed 'til we see what happens come Week 1.
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